Another interesting game. In some ways very similar to last night. The hotter, virtually as good (if not better (Lasalle)) coming into a more well known public team's home. I really think you can make a case for either side here.
Cody Ellis has been shooting in some ways like he did in his frosh year. Jordair Jett has been a big time 6th man all year and only getting better. STL is one of the deepest teams in the A-10 and although lacking some true bigs in the middle, they have been able to play with teams using their brains. They really do not have an answer for Smith, but who really does? Clarke will have his hands full with Jett when he is on the floor, but ultimately RC will get his.
This is really only the 7th true road game all year for the Bills, but they are peaking at the right time. Since their loss to RI at home...still scratching my head at that, but love it as a Rhody Alum, they have rattled off 8 straight with an average win margin of +15.5 ppg . On that list does include this Butler team, Charlotte and VCU. Butler controlled the boards last time out, despite getting killed, but I dont think this Butler team is as unready for this game. They learned how hard it is to win in Chafeitz, free pass for not knowing. This should be somewhat of a pace controlled game, given the total, but this is where I am a little confused.
STL may not mind pushing the ball tonight. In fact, they dont mind at all, and while both teams are KenPom strong rated defensive teams, their offenses are nearly just as good. This is not the STL team with Lisch running point anymore and Cassidy. This is a more athletic team, with more speed and skill. I dont think this game is quite as high scoring as the last, but if you look at the last 10 or so games for both teams, and more so the last 5 (which I value a lot when it comes to totals), I am leaned to the over.
Outside of the Richmond game, where Richmond was fine with slowing it down, STL hasn't scored less than 67 in their 8 game win streak. Look at Butler, and while you see games that are semi low scoring, you are looking at them playing inferior opponents, GW, Duquense, Fordham (and that got to 131). In my eyes, the key to today is STL pushing the pace. I think they are smart enough at times to do so. I see a close enough game where FT's help and I will add that both teams have shot the 3 fairly well lately. STL has the plan to win, I believe they will try and force the pace at times with transition buckets.
I truly feel this game goes over into the high 120's. Id say 66-62 Butler win, but would not surprise me to see STL on the winning end either.
I will not put a play in yet as the line is dropping, but the over will be the one. It is not XXL or huge, but a solid medium sized play, as there is always the chance this turns into a dog fight and ends 57-55 type thing.
Butler/St. Louis OVER ??? (I am hoping for it to drop to 123) (1.5-1.75 units probably)
I will be making a small play on Butler. I think they get revenge tonight too.