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Play WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML instead x 1U -105
Season Personal (Real) Plays: Side/Totals 11 - 7 (EVEN Units) Parlay 1 - 0 (+1.1 U) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday TREND Plays: -Both SF and Philadelphia with 2 OVERS in a row ... so consider an UNDER next game -Both SD and Arizona with 2 OVERS in a row .... -Both Miami and Oakland with 2 OVERS in a row .... -both Washington and Toronto.... broke the trend and now have 3 OVERS in a row....will research that angle next but going to wait...I don't continue to look for an UNDER next when a trend breaks because then its just guessing and that is not why I produce this thread >> to guess haha -both NYY and Detroit with 2 OVERS in a row....
Will breakdown these potential games into RISKY, DECENT and GOOD plays with the trend and my picks
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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Only one game on the Trend today and I DO NOT LIKE IT!
Bringing up Alek Manoah for the Jays from Triple A because he pitched 6 innings of 1 hitter after numerous rehab games last season and this year is frankly, a roll of the dice and MacKenzie Gore handled the Jays well in his last start
Play WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML instead x 1U -105 .... if you go with the trend to go UNDER, its RISKY in my opinion. although you have an UNDER umpire who has a 2.9 era avg for his games and therefore might help Manoah who can be a charmer with the umpires......good guy and chatty/laughs/funny with them so might get some calls |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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Sunday Trend #2 Options: - will discuss and rate this tomorrow to go UNDER Toronto @ Washington
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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On April 21, I started posting about 3 Trends I had uncovered and would follow them in a simulation to see how they would do. I have dropped 2 of them and now have combined #3 into #2 Trend
Trend #2 - was 27 - 14 from end of March to April 20 Trend #3 -was over 60% success rate, but in the last 2 weeks had begun to act like Trend #2 to the tune of 16 - 10 - 1 record
Trend #2 OVERALL now = 48 - 27 - 1 if I combine early season with reversal of TREND #3 to UNDER like Trend #2 Includes tonight's winner > UNDER 7.5 Mets@Tampa
Personal Bet > DODGERS-BRAVES Under 8.5 x 2U Also, Dodgers runline -1.5 x 1U +115
Season Personal (Real) Plays: Side/Totals 10 - 7 (-1 Units) Parlay 1 - 0 (+1.1 U)
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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THE ONLY TREND I am playing now is, UNDER after 2 consecutive Overs from any teams!! RECORD = 16 - 10 - 1 for the last few weeks and I see merit in taking the best pitcher side on the Runline since there are a lot of 5-2, 3-0, 3-1 type games happening in these situations (maybe not always the best pitcher, but you might snag an extra HALF U on the runline here and there).....
I am looking for OTHER TRENDS soon via a 21-30 day window analysis of that most recent time frame....
Today's Teams that trend: Mets @ Tampa >> bet UNDER 7.5 -115 >> rated RISKY
Only one play fits.... Personally, I am taking DODGERS-BRAVES Under 8.5 x 2U with Elder and Glasnow on the mound and the Braves in a cold streak with their bats not clicking in last 10 games or so Also, Dodgers runline -1.5 x 1U +115
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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results Friday:
CINCY was off today and they carry a 2 OVER streak > as per TREND #3, they have a strong chance of going OVER again tomorrow - SD also with a 2 OVER streak so that should continue as they are from the NL - Twins have 2 0VERS in a row so TREND #2 > strong chance of UNDER happening for this AL team - CWS have 2 OVERS in a row > strong chance of UNDER happening vs St.L SIMULTION RESULTS NOW: Risky Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 1 - 0 Trend #2 = 3 - 0 Trend #3 = 4 - 5 Decent Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 0 - 3 - 1 Trend #2 = 2 - 2 Trend #3 = 1 - 1 - 1 Good Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 2 - 1 Trend #2 = 2 - 2
OVERALL: Trend #1 = 3 - 4 - 1 <<< dropping the 4 UNDERS in a row Trend >>> now Trend #2 is called TREND #1 Trend #2 = 7 - 5 ..... CONTINUES!! (starting today = called Trend #1) Trend #3 = 5 - 9 - 1 ..... it is very obvious to me that TREND #2 which involves the AL .....can now be applied to NL as well since their combined records would be 16 - 10 - 1
THEREFORE, BEST TREND NOW = When any team goes OVER 2x in a row, take the UNDER and best pitcher also in my view |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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No active TRENDS that I am tracking , carrying over for tomorrow based on todays results
However, CINCY was off today and they carry a 2 OVER streak > as per TREND #3, they have a strong chance of going OVER again tomorrow - SD also with a 2 OVER streak so that should continue as they are from the NL - Twins have 2 0VERS in a row so TREND #2 > strong chance of UNDER happening for this AL team - CWS have 2 OVERS in a row > strong chance of UNDER happening vs St.L
Of note, SF is going for its 7th UNDER in a row. 2 TEAMS > Atlanta and Seattle concluded a 8 gamer with a PUSH the other night.
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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WEDNESDAY TREND RESULTS Trend #1 San Fran - expecting an OVER > following 4 UNDERS in a row Trend #2 -N/A Trend #3 -Phillies OVER >> 3 in a row, do they continue OVER in game 4, 5 etc? - Washington OVER >> " " - Miami OVER >> 4 in a row, will they get a 5th as NL teams get streaky on OVERS? - both CINCI and San Diego >> with 2 in a row OVERS ....and they tend to continue with NL teams!
And .... SEA/Braves could not reach their 8th UNDER in a row which became a PUSH....not a trend, but just interesting
Will have some trend plays later. TRENDS are dipping .500 now in results. I will stick with it through MAY to see if this bears fruit as it did in MARCH-APRIL and then look for the next high % trend |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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Overall Trend Rating Tracking for Simulation: Risky Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 1 - 0 Trend #2 = 2 - 0 Trend #3 = 4 - 4 Decent Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 0 - 2 - 1 Trend #2 = 2 - 2 Trend #3 = 1 - 0 - 1 Good Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 2 - 1 Trend #2 = 1 - 2
ALL TRENDS = 13 - 12 - 1 in simulation .....well below the first 6 week trend of 80%/ 68% and 61% for trend 3 |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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WEDNESDAY POTENTIAL TREND PLAYS TO CONSIDER: Trend #1 San Fran - expecting an OVER > following 4 UNDERS in a row Trend #2 -N/A tomorrow Trend #3 -Phillies OVER >> 3 in a row, do they continue OVER in game 4, 5 etc? - Washington OVER >> " " - Miami OVER >> 4 in a row, will they get a 5th as NL teams get streaky on OVERS? - both CINCI and San Diego >> with 2 in a row OVERS ....and they tend to continue with NL teams!
Both ATLANTA and SEATTLE going for their 8th UNDER in a row also which is interesting.... ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Need to update Simulation results as I found an ERROR >> TREND #1 tonight was a PUSH!
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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Update Simulation Results: Overall Trend Rating Tracking for Simulation: Risky Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 1 - 0 Trend #2 = 2 - 0 Trend #3 = 4 - 4 Decent Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 0 - 3 Trend #2 = 2 - 2 Trend #3 = 1 - 0 - 1 Good Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 2 - 1 Trend #2 = 1 - 2
ALL TRENDS = 13 - 13 in simulation .....well below the first 6 week trend of 80%/ 68% and 61% for trend 3 |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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NO PLAYS TODAY....busy time this week so will suggest some TRENDS that I am keeping track of and some plays when I see them. I did take ATLANTA as my eyeballs perused the pitching matchups and Toronto UNDER....as fast action bets before I had to go somewhere. RESULTS of TREND PLAYS TODAY: Trend #1 Pittsburgh - expecting an OVER > following 4 UNDERS in a row (Would have rated this DECENT) Trend #2 - Toronto UNDER >> following 2 consecutive OVERS (would have rated this GOOD) Trend #3 -Phillies OVER >> 2 in a row, do they continue OVER in game 3, 4 etc? (RISKY) - Washington OVER >> " " (DECENT) PUSH! - Miami OVER >> " " (RISKY)
Both ATLANTA and SEATTLE going for their 7th UNDER in a row also which is interesting.... (DECENT)
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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TUESDAY POTENTIAL TREND PLAYS TO CONSIDER: Trend #1 Pittsburgh - expecting an OVER > following 4 UNDERS in a row Trend #2 - Toronto UNDER >> following 2 consecutive OVERS Trend #3 -Phillies OVER >> 2 in a row, do they continue OVER in game 3, 4 etc? - Washington OVER >> " " - Miami OVER >> " "
Both ATLANTA and SEATTLE going for their 7th UNDER in a row also which is interesting.... |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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Qualifiers for Simulation > RESULTS Trend #1 - LAD /Arizona - Zona on a 4 game UNDER STREAK so that means this trend at 11-4, indicates an OVER is coming next
Trend #2 - Minny / CWS - Twins have gone OVER 2 games in a row and CWS just ended a long OVER streak....any 2 OVERS by an American League team tend to have an UNDER right after the second Over at a high rate ( 31 - 17 now) - Phillies/ LAA Angels - Angels have gone OVER 2 games in a row > consider UNDER next game Trend #3 - Wash /Miami - both have gone OVER for 2 games and I expect that to continue according to Trend 3 and National League Overs - TB / Milwaukee - Milwaukee has gone OVER for 4 games now and consider riding this streak if the matchup makes sense Update Simulation Results: Overall Trend Rating Tracking for Simulation:
Risky Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 1 - 0 Trend #2 = 2 - 0 Trend #3 = 2 - 4 Decent Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 0 - 2 Trend #2 = 2 - 2 Trend #3 = 1 - 0 Good Rated Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 2 - 1 Trend #2 = 0 - 2 |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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My Plays tonight: Trend #1 OVER 10 LAD / ARIZ - rate 6.6 out of 10 GOOD chance to go OVER for a lot of reasons (few time to explain) Personal Bet x 1U Trend #2 - Twins/CWST to go UNDER 7.5 > rate this < 5.0 out of 10 RISKY chance for a lot of reasons Personal Bet x 1.5 U - Twins runline +105
- Phillies /Angels to go UNDER 9 > rate this 5.7 out of 10 DECENT chance to go UNDER
Trend #3 - no play on both of them....ran out of time to rate and consider playing ...sorry |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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Personally, I went 2-1 today (EVEN gain)
Season Personal (Real) Plays: Side/Totals 9 - 6 (EVEN Units) Parlay 1 - 0 (+1.1 U)
Qualifiers for Tomorrow (will comment in the morning or afternoon): Trend #1 - LAD /Arizona - Zona on a 4 game UNDER STREAK so that means this trend at 11-4, indicates an OVER is coming next
Trend #2 - Minny / CWS - Twins have gone OVER 2 games in a row and CWS just ended a long OVER streak....any 2 OVERS by an American League team tend to have an UNDER right after the second Over at a high rate ( 31 - 17 now) - Phillies/ LAA Angels - Angels have gone OVER 2 games in a row > consider UNDER next game
Trend #3 - Wash /Miami - both have gone OVER for 2 games and I expect that to continue according to Trend 3 and National League Overs - TB / Milwaukee - Milwaukee has gone OVER for 4 games now and consider riding this streak if the matchup makes sense
Another observation: - first time seeing this.... Braves on a 6 game UNDER STREAK face a Mariners team on a 6 game UNDER streak
5 - 6 matchups to do a deep dive tomorrow but the five trend games will go towards the Simulation Record |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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SUNDAY TREND GAMES: Trend #1 - N / A Trend #2 - Yankees with 2 OVERS in a row > should go UNDER next game (30 - 16 success) DECENT 0 - 1 - Boston with 2 OVERS in a row > should go UNDER (counters the CUBS overstreak) RISKY 1 - 0 Overall Trend Rating Tracking for Simulation: Risky Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 1 - 0 Trend #2 = 2 - 0 Trend #3 = 1 - 3 Decent Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 0 - 2 Trend #2 = 2 - 2 Trend #3 = 1 - 0 Good Trend Plays: Trend #1 = 1 - 1 Trend #2 = 0 - 2
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:
@Last2thirst "UNDER 16.5 Hou/Col x 1.5U - crazy total given the fact that Blanco has a good record, its cool and blowing in wind in Denver tonight and the Rockies have only gone OVER this total 2 - 10 at home" _________________________ The game was in Mexico as part of the MLB World Tour: Mexico City Series.
That makes sense!! Thank you.
I did see them in short sleeves during the game haha so I am glad I got the under yesterday.... Framber won't mind pitching in that heat....similar to the Dominican! |
Last2thirst | 53 |
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Plays suggested today using Trends:
Yankees UNDER 8.5 (Trend #2 - trend is 30 - 16 so far since start of season): -Stroman with era rising lately BUT, is low era on the road and in day games (both under 2.00 ERA over 11.3 innings) -Yankees with 4th best bullpen! - Brewers hit .246 / .329 OBP off Stroman with 2 HR/6RBIs in 65 ABs - Yanks facing an unknown pitcher who pitched very well in his first start over 5 innings - Yanks hit consistently around the same avg for day game/road and vs a rightie (around .245 avg) BUT hit significantly fewer HRs during day games - Brewers with 8th best bullpen in baseball - for me, I notice over the years that getaway games on Sunday tend to go UNDER if good pitchers involved
NEGATIVE - high era umpire (5.2 era avg) - Brewers hit well in day games and vs righties but generally worse at home than on the road (30 pts lower)
Rating for this bet = 6. 0 / 10 DECENT chance of going UNDER 8.5 (would have rated 6.4? if UNDER umpire)
Personal Plays: Yanks Under 8.5 x 1U Clev/Atl Under 9 x HALF U - only 3 of 15 away games by Cleveland have gone over this number - 2 pitchers pitching well so far this season and low run production in pitchers history vs lineups - Atlanta 7 - 7 for the number of times going over this total at home (but on a 5 game UNDER run) - strong wind blowing in from centre with lower humidity than usual for such a temperature of 77 Col - Houston Under 16.5 x HALF U -Gomber pitches ok at home and Valdez is pitching well this year
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Retiredfeddave:
BOL on all your plays Bud. hope many tix are cashed!!!!
Thanks Bud!
First 6 weeks of the season, these trends were hot ....but so far this week, pretty vanilla results like a standard retail capper ....around 45-50% success rate trying them
The beauty of them though, it reduces my capping and I find some good SIDES to focus on.
All the best for you this season
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Last2thirst | 53 |
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