The XFL regular season rumbles on with four more games on tap for Week 7.
Action resumes Friday night between the Seattle Sea Dragons (4-2) and Arlington Renegades (3-3). A two-game Saturday slate follows as the San Antonio Brahmas (2-4) face the Vegas Vipers (1-5), and the D.C. Defenders (6-0) look to stay perfect as they square off against the lowly Orlando Guardians (0-6).
Last but not least, the St. Louis Battlehawks (4-2) hit the road to face the Houston Roughnecks (4-2) on Sunday in what looks like the best game of the weekend on paper.
Check out our XFL picks and predictions for Week 7 below.
XFL picks for Week 7
Picks made on 3/29/2023 at 9:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Week 7 XFL odds and predictions
Seattle Sea Dragons vs Arlington Renegades
Friday, 7:00 pm ET, FX/ESPN+
| Seattle Sea Dragons | Arlington Renegades | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 (-110) | Spread | +4.5 (-110) |
| -195 | Moneyline | +165 |
| Over 37.5 (-110) | Total | Under 37.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 29.
Friday’s standalone matchup between Seattle and Arlington figures to be one of the better games of the weekend. Jim Haslett’s Sea Dragons look to stay red hot after winning four games in a row to notch the league’s second-longest winning streak. This will be the first and only matchup between these two squads during the regular season.
Seattle is a perfect 3-0 against the South Division, and will look to keep that streak alive against a nondescript Arlington team coming off a 15-9 loss to San Antonio. Oddsmakers are buying Seattle to roll in this away game, as the Sea Dragons currently sit as -4.5 favorites.
I have to agree with the decision to tab Seattle as the favorite. Arlington’s offense has been simply dreadful, and I’m not sure that it can keep pace with June Jones’ offense in this one.
The Renegades are second-to-last with just 854 passing yards on the season, and average a measly 5.0 yards per attempt. Both Kyle Sloter and Drew Plitt have struggled at quarterback, and flip-flopping between the two hasn’t yielded the desired results for coach Bob Stoops. Sloter and Plitt have combined for a 4:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The rushing attack is even worse, ranking dead-last with 437 yards this season and 2.9 yards per rush.
I could make a case that Arlington hasn’t been impressive in any game this season. The Renegades’ three wins this season have come by an aggregate five points against teams with a combined 3-15 record.
Seattle has faced much tougher competition thus far and has still managed a four-game winning streak. This team is solid on both sides of the ball, ranking third in offensive grading (75.0) and fourth in defensive grading (74.4) per PFF. Arlington is solid defensively (86.0), but woeful offensively (55.7) and I don’t see how Stoops’ side can keep pace.
Things have been spiraling for a while, and I’ll take the Renegades to go down the drain in Week 7.
Pick: Seattle -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
San Antonio Brahmas vs Vegas Vipers
Saturday, 3:00 pm ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
| San Antonio Brahmas | Vegas Vipers | |
|---|---|---|
| +3 (-115) | Spread | -3 (-105) |
| +125 | Moneyline | -145 |
| Over 39.5 (-110) | Total | Under 39.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 29.
Saturday’s action kicks off with a game between two struggling teams that have a combined record of 3-9. Oddsmakers believe Vegas is the superior side despite its lone win this season, making the Vipers a -3 favorite across the board, and setting the total at 39.5.
I backed San Antonio last week as a road underdog of +3 at Arlington, and I’ll be going right back to the well again this week in similar circumstances, albeit in Vegas. This Vipers team frankly shouldn’t be favored over anyone in this league other than perhaps the woeful Guardians.
Vegas grades out as the much worse team according to PFF, and that backs up what my eyes have seen thus far. The Vipers have a 59.1 overall grade, better than only the Guardians, while the Brahmas check in at 71.3 overall.
There’s a reason Vegas has only one win this season — it simply isn’t very good. The defense is especially poor, grading out as the league’s worst at 58.6 — seven full points below the second-worst Guardians (65.7). This team couldn’t stop a cold, so even a shorthanded San Antonio team juggling options at the quarterback position shouldn’t be out of luck.
One thing I like to look for is taking the better defense catching points. That’s the case in this spot, as the Brahmas have allowed just 88 points this season — nearly half of what the Vipers have coughed up (163).
One thing Vegas does well is throw the ball offensively, leading the league with 7.0 yards per pass attempt. San Antonio just so happens to have a relatively excellent secondary (by XFL standards), ranking second in coverage grade (80.6) per PFF. Give me the Brahmas catching points yet again this week.
Pick: San Antonio +3 (-110 at bet365)
D.C. Defenders vs Orlando Guardians
Saturday, 6:00 pm ET, ESPN/ESPN+
| D.C. Defenders | Orlando Guardians | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (-120) | Spread | +9.5 (+100) |
| -435 | Moneyline | +350 |
| Over 45.5 (-110) | Total | Under 45.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 29.
The D.C. Defenders have been the clear class of the league this far, and have a perfect 6-0 record. They made it abundantly clear that they were head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league with a 37-26 win over a quality Houston team in Week 6 that was never as close as the final score indicates. The Defenders went up 34-14 early in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach and coasted from there.
A review of that game’s box score does cast some doubt on D.C.’s supremacy as the Roughbecks actually won the yards per play battle 7.3 to 5.7 — a substantial margin. D.C. won the day thanks primarily to a Santos Ramirez pick six and cutting down on penalties (Houston had 102 penalty yards to D.C.’s 25).
Things are not going well in Orlando, as the Guardians are 0-6 and are widely renowned as the league’s worst team. Oddsmakers have established them as a sizable +9.5 underdog in this matchup. I won’t be targeting a side with my best for this matchup, but instead have my eye trained on the total, which the books have set at 45.
Orlando has a dreadful defense, ranking last in points allowed (178) through six games. D.C.’s offense ranks third with 134 points scored, and just put up a bunch of crooked numbers (37 points, 356 total yards) against the league’s best defense, Houston. One has to imagine Jordan Ta’amu and the league’s best rushing offense find success here in a favorable matchup. This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and should be able to find the end zone.
Orlando may stink, but give credit where credit is due — the offense has found some spunk lately.
With Quinten Dormady under center a week ago, the Guardians managed 391 total yards against Seattle. The week prior, they exploded for 32 points against Vegas. Orlando could continue to find success in the air against a middling D.C. pass defense that ranks fourth in coverage grade (76.0) and sixth in pass rush grade (70.9), per PFF.
The Defenders simply struggle to bring ball carriers to the ground, ranking last in tackling with a woeful 40.0 grade. For reference, Orlando’s moribund defense has a tackling grade of 58.2.
I’ll take the Over.
Pick: Over 45 (-110 at bet365)
St. Louis Battlehawks vs Houston Roughnecks
Sunday, 2:00 pm ET, ESPN/ESPN+
| St. Louis Battlehawks | Houston Roughnecks | |
|---|---|---|
| +3 (-110) | Spread | -3 (-110) |
| +130 | Moneyline | -150 |
| Over 43.5 (-125) | Total | Under 43.5 (+105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 29.
Sunday’s clash between St. Louis and Houston should be a good one. The Roughnecks were the class of the league a few short weeks ago after four straight victories to begin the season, but have come crashing back to earth after back-to-back defeats. Can Wade Phillips’ squad get back on track at home against a tough Battlehawks team?
This will be the only regular-season meeting between these teams, so we don’t have prior results to work with — which, interestingly enough, is the case with all four games this weekend. The numbers don’t see a whole lot separating these two teams, as Houston grades out as PFF’s best team overall, while St. Louis is right behind in second.
This will be the most interesting game of the weekend not only because it’s a matchup between two top teams, but it will also serve as a telling data point for both sides. Houston has mostly beaten up bad teams (zero wins over a team that currently has a winning record) while falling short in two chances to step up in competition (21-14 loss to Seattle in Week 5, 37-26 loss to D.C. in Week 6). You can almost say the same thing about St. Louis, who has lost twice to D.C., except there’s one difference — St. Louis notched a win over Seattle, a 4-2 team currently looking like a contender.
Until I see Houston beat a team with a winning record, I can’t trust the Roughnecks laying points against one of the league’s better teams. The Roughnecks’ stats look great — especially their league-best defensive grade (90.8) at PFF — but one must keep in mind that they’ve played the Guardians twice and the Brahmas once. There is also now a quarterback controversy after Cole McDonald finished the D.C. game last week. That’s another unknown that leaves me uncomfortable with the favorite and points me in the direction of the underdog.
The Battlehawks have scored the most points (139) in the league and have the best offensive rating (69.5) at PFF. A.J. McCarron and company will test this vaunted Wade Phillips defense that was exposed a week ago by D.C.
St. Louis has fallen just short against good competition a few times this season and that could happen again, but I’d sure rather be catching three points than laying them in this close matchup on paper.
Pick: St. Louis +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
