The Atlanta Dream lug a three-game losing skid into the Big Apple to battle the New York Liberty on Thursday.
The first of those three losses for Atlanta came at the hands of the Liberty, who look to cap off an incredible June turnaround with a home victory.
New York opened the schedule with a 1-7 SU record and 2-6 ATS mark in May before rolling to a 7-3 SU count and 8-2 ATS windfall in June, most recently an 89-77 victory over the Dream on June 24.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Dream at Liberty on June 30.
Dream vs Liberty odds
New York hit the board as big as -5.5 at home, slimmed to -4.5 but has been bet back up to -5.5. The total opened at 162 points and has dropped to as low as 160.5.
Odds via bet365. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Dream vs Liberty predictions
Predictions made on 6/30/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Dream vs Liberty info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Thursday, June 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Twitter
Dream vs Liberty betting preview
Key injuries
Dream: Tiffany Hayes G (Probable), Kia Vaughn C (Probable), Nia Coffey F (Out).
Liberty: Crystal Dangerfield G (Out), Rebecca Allen G (Out), Jocelyn Willoughby F (Out), Betnijah Laney G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Liberty are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Liberty.
Dream vs Liberty picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Dream have had nightmares on the road this WNBA season, owning a dismal 3-6 SU record as a visitor. They have, however, come away with the cash in five of those away games. Unfortunately, Tuesday’s trip to the nation’s capital was not one of those times. Atlanta was blasted 92-74 by the Mystics.
The Dream’s defense ranks out among the stingiest in the league but has puffed up those metrics against low-tier teams while struggling to contain the elite squads. Where does New York fit in that pecking order, considering its surge in June?
The Liberty enter the final day of June ranked second in advanced net rating for the month (7.3) behind only defending champs Chicago. New York’s resurrection has been on both sides of the ball, and that balance was on display in the win at Atlanta last Friday. The Liberty shot 47% from the field, had three players with 17 or more points, and checked the Dream to 37% success from the floor.
New York has been off since then, allotting the team some much-needed rest but also rare practice time to focus on the road ahead. Atlanta, in the meantime, has played two games — losses to Connecticut and Washington — and will be taking the court for the fourth time in seven days.
The Liberty are missing some pieces and it sounds like roster moves have to happen to keep Crystal Dangerfield in action tonight, taking a starter out of the Liberty’s lineup. But we’ll bet the rested team playing its best basketball over a drained Dream squad.
Prediction: Liberty -5.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned, the Dream’s defense hasn’t risen to the challenge against elite teams, as evidenced by the 92 points Washington hung on them Tuesday. However, Atlanta did get two key defenders back in the mix for that game, in Kia Vaughn and Erica Wheeler, and do a great job limiting easy looks at the basket.
New York’s offense has been very efficient around the key during this month, but it'll find itself pushed out of the paint and firing more from mid-range versus Atlanta (limited to 26 PITP in their first matchup). The Liberty lean into a slow pace with the basketball, owning a rating of 94.02 in June.
The offense will miss Dangerfield in the starting five. She’s scoring 9.7 points with three assists on the season and was creating some great chemistry with star Sabrina Ionescu, who thrived in that backcourt tandem. That pair combined for 29 points and 11 assists and 7 for 13 shooting from beyond the arc against Atlanta last week.
That 89-77 final score was sparked by a 33-point first quarter from New York and played Over the 159-point total. But the final 30 minutes of that matchup were more indicative of the play and production of these two teams, with only 117 total points scored in those final three frames.
Prediction: Under 161 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
The Liberty have easily been the best first-quarter team in the WNBA this month, owning an average margin of +4.1 in those opening 10 minutes. Atlanta, on the other hand, has not.
The Dream have dug themselves a -3.7 hole in those first quarters in June — including that 33-16 head start allowed to the Liberty last Friday. They’ve trailed after 10 minutes in each of the games on this three-game skid, most recently watching Washington put up 32 first-quarter points.
New York is a 1.5-point 1Q favorite but we'll keep it simple with the first-quarter moneyline.
Pick: Liberty first-quarter moneyline (-150 at bet365)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Dream vs. Liberty predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $49.49 on a $10 bet?
Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
