Charles Oliveira vs. Beneil Dariush is the co-main event for UFC 289 tonight from Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC.
This should be a banger between a pair of Top 5 lightweights with Dariush trying to earn a title shot by beating the former champ. UFC odds are expecting a close fight between these longtime UFC veterans with Dariush as a slim -120 favorite. Money has come in on Dariush, shifting his price to -150 with Oliveira now at +125.
Here are my best free Oliveira vs. Dariush picks and predictions for UFC 289 on Saturday, June 10.
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush fight odds
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Charles Oliveira | Beneil Dariush |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +550 | +270 |
| To win by Points | +600 | +330 |
| To win by Submission | +320 | +500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 10, 2023.
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush betting preview
Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira is coming off a submission loss to Islam Makhachev for the vacant lightweight championship last October. That lopsided defeat snapped an 11-fight winning streak for Do Bronx — who claimed lightweight gold after knocking out Michael Chandler in 2021 and defended it in a submission victory against Dustin Poirier later that year.
Oliveira was stripped of the title after weighing half a pound over the limit against Justin Gaetjhe in May 2022 but submitted Gaethje in the first round to get first dibs on the vacant belt.
With an extensive background in BJJ, Oliveira is one of the best grapplers in the world and holds the UFC record for most submission wins (16) and finishes (19). He's also an an aggressive striker with crisp Muay Thai ability and throws vicious elbows and knees in close.
Dariush is the No. 4 ranked lightweight contender and enters UFC 289 having won eight fights in a row. In his previous bout last October he won an impressive split-decision against current No. 7 lightweight Mateusz Gamrot despite coming in as a +170 underdog.
The 34-year-old made his promotional debut in 2014 and has gone 16-4-1 in the octagon, with eight of those victories coming inside the distance.
Dariush has a background as a world champion BJJ practitioner but has vastly improved his kickboxing over the years. He's a well-rounded fighter who can get it done wherever the fight goes and lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.55.
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush tale of the tape
| Charles Oliveira | Beneil Dariush | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 74 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 33-9 (9 KO) | Record | 22-4 (5 KO) |
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Oliveira ML
This should be a close fight between a pair of lightweight contenders with similar skillsets. They are both elite grapplers with kickboxing that has vastly improved over their careers and both can be a bit hittable, relying on their chins and recoverability to withstand damage.
However, there are some key differences as well. While both have excellent jiu-jitsu, Dariush has superior wrestling which should be an advantage when it comes to takedowns and top control.
That said, Dariush has struggled in the past against opponents who can bring the fight to him and smother him with strikes. Oliveira fights at a frantic pace and swarms his opponents, attacking with every weapon in his arsenal.
I could see Dariush having trouble the pressure of Oliveira, and since I think this line should be closer to the pick'em, I'll lean ever-so-slightly towards Do Bronx at plus money.
Prediction: Oliveira moneyline (+125 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Oliveira to win in Round 1 or 2
If you think Oliveira gets the win it makes sense to back him inside the distance for an even better payout. Do Bronx has an incredible 91% finish rate in his career and 11 of his last 13 victories have come in the first or second round.
Dariush has a history of getting cracked and he's been wobbled by fighters who are nowhere near as dangerous as Olives.
He's also supremely confident in his jiu-jitsu and has said that he wants to test Oliveira's grappling. That means that he'll likely follow Oliveira to the mat if the former champ falls into guard, as he has a tendency to do when trying to recover.
Oliveira's best chance of getting the victory will come in the early going if he can keep Dariush on the back foot. With Oliveira's aggressiveness and Beneil's recklessness at times, back Do Bronx to win inside the first two rounds at +240.
Pick: Charles Oliveira Round 1 or 2 (+240 at FanDuel)
