Today's NCAAB Picks
Given the game script, Clemson needs Joe Girard to take and make a lot of triples on Thursday night. Girard was just 3 for 13 from beyond the arc in the first two rounds, which has helped trim the price on his 3-point prop on the Sweet 16. The Wildcats' biggest weakness is on the perimeter, ranked is 146th and 211th in points allowed per play to “catch-and-shoot” and “off-the-dribble” 3-point playsets, according to ShotQualityBets. That’s seen 32.5% of points against the Wildcats come from 3-pointers (272nd). Clemson, on the other hand, thrives in those 3-point looks, ranked 25th and 16th in the country in points per play in the offensive flip of those metrics. Before the NCAA Tournament, Giard had made three or more triples in nine of the previous 12 games, including 3 for 7 in the loss to Boston College in the ACC tournament.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 2 days, 0 hrs, 58 min ago.
UConn has won nine straight since getting torched at Creighton in mid-February, going 8-1 ATS. Its defense has been exceeding bookmakers’ expectations, holding eight of those foes below their team totals by an average of 6.1 points. Since Feb. 23, UConn has given up 88.8 points per 100 possessions, the No. 4 adjusted defense in the country, per barttorvik.com. Before then, the Huskies allowed 95.2 points per 100 possessions, No. 23 in the country.
Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 1 day, 20 hrs, 22 min ago.
Newton scored a team-high 19 points against SDSU in last year's title game, including 8 for 8 from the foul line. This time around, the Aztecs defense isn't as good and is without a rim protector. Newton will go after the San Diego State interior and score high-percentage looks at the basket and pick up points from the charity stripe. His scoring prop for the Sweet 16 is set at 14.5 points with the Over priced as high as -125 and sharper sportsbook also setting the vig on Over 14.5 in the -120 range. However, you can find this same offering as low as -105 at FanDuel sportsbooks.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 19 hrs, 56 min ago.
Given the historically-high game total and Alabama's defensive weakness to transition and triples, I love UNC guard R.J. Davis to continue his solid shooting from beyond the arc in the Sweet 16. North Carolina's offense is at its best in transition and the pace of this game will lean into that. Davis averages 3.1 3-pointers per game on the season and is 7 for 14 from distance in the first two rounds of the tournament. He's made three or more from outside in four straight and 10 of his last 14 games and will have more touches and a drive to answer Alabama's outside shooting on Thursday, presenting plenty of attempts from beyond the arc. Player projections calls for 3.3 makes from Davis and his Over 2.5 triples is priced as high as -144. However, you can get Over 2.5 3's at +110 at bet365 as of Tuesday morning.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 2 days, 0 hrs, 25 min ago.
The 6-foot-7, 235-pound Ingram is a matchup nightmare for Nate Oats’ team, with Ingram able to body smaller defenders or blow past bigger ones. Alabama doesn’t have a solid matchup for the junior. He’s a threat in face-up, the post, can finish the fastbreak, and can get on the offensive glass for put-backs. Ingram, who averaged just over 12 points per game during the season, will see increased touches due to the tempo and scoring expected (total is 173.5) between these teams. His player projections for Thursday call for 14 points, which is well beyond his scoring prop of 11.5 points. Some books have the Over 11.5 from Ingram priced as high as -145, but FanDuel is dealing that same wager at -118 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 19 hrs, 51 min ago.
Ingram is actually in a bit of a mini-slump when it comes to rebounding averaging a modest 5.3 rpg over his last four games. However, UNC faced some extremely slow-paced teams during that span and there will be more available rebounds in this contest since these up-tempo attacks take a ton of shots. A larger sample size is a better indication of what Ingram can do on the glass and before that recent four-game stretch, he had pulled down double-digits in rebounds in 12 of his previous 15 games while averaging 11.3 rpg during that span. The O/U on Ingram's rebounds total had been set at 9.5 or 10.5 for much of the last two months and being able to get that number at 8.5 for this contest is a bargain.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 day, 0 hrs, 30 min ago.
Alabama's high-scoring attack is spearheaded by guard Mark Sears who averages 21.5 ppg and shoots a sizzling 43.5% from beyond the arc. The Tar Heels are 54th in the country in opponent three-point percentage (31.7%) but they allow high-quality three point attempts. They are 298th at defending catch-and-shoot threes and 317th at defending off-the-dribble threes according to ShotQualityBets which suggests that regression will happen when they face better shooting teams. That regression may have hit since they are allowing opponents to shoot 39.6% over their last three games and now they face Sears who can light it up from deep. With the O/U on Sears' three-pointers set at 2.5 and the Bama guard eclipsing that number in nine of his last 14 games, bet the Over.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 day, 0 hrs, 18 min ago.
Alabama has surrendered a whopping 84.1 ppg since the start of the New Year and has been particularly vulnerable inside the arc ranking 199th in opponent 2PT% (50.8%). Starting center Grant Nelson is a defensive liability and UNC will look to exploit that matchup with second-team All-ACC center Armando Bacot who is averaging 15.9 ppg on 56.1 FG% since the start of February. Bacot become a March Madness star when he helped lead UNC to the National title game in 2022 and he has dropped 18+ points in each of his last four games. The senior is a monster on the glass and with Alabama 238th in the country in defensive rebounding rate, he'll get his share of putbacks. With Alabama's weak defense and blazing fast pace, taking the Over on Bacot's points seems like a no-brainer.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 day, 0 hrs, 9 min ago.
In 14 games since Feb. 10, Shannon has averaged 27.0 points, falling short of 23 points just twice. His true shooting percentage in this stretch has been 65.8%. Shannon is playing distinctly better than anyone who has already found recent success against the Cyclones, something four players have still done in their last five games, and Shannon is doing it while keeping the ball in his hands. In these 14 games, his usage rate is 29.7%. In five postseason games, it has been 33.4%.
Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 1 min ago.
I'm zigging when the market is zagging on Lipey. He’s averaging just shy of five assists on the season and has dished out more than five dimes in three of his last four games. His Over/Under on assists in the Sweet 16 is at 4.5 with the Under a hefty favorite, and some books as pricy as Under -171. The Illini have longer guards to throw at Lipsey, which could hinder his shot attempts and turn him into more of a distributor. Player projections have Lipsey forecasted for as many as 4.7 assists, which looks pretty good when measured up against the Over 4.5 at +130 odds. It’s a contrarian play considering how the market is pricing this prop, but worth the squeeze.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 19 hrs, 53 min ago.
NC State has struggled mightily defensively against pick-and-roll sets. It's in the bottom 28% of college basketball defensively and one of the worst in the ACC. This is one of the few offenses that the Pack have faced amid their run that is going to make big man DJ Burns defend in space. Nine out of 10 times, Kolek will make the correct read when he drags him away from the basketball on those high-ball screens.
Chris Hatfield - Pick Made 1 day, 0 hrs, 24 min ago.
Diarra has grabbed 12 or more rebounds in six straight games while averaging 11.7 points. Player projections call for almost 11 points and 13 rebounds from NC State’s standout forward in the Sweet 16. Diarra faces a Marquette frontcourt that hasn’t been great on the glass, sitting 287th in rebound rate. His points and rebounding props are heavily juiced to the Over and you can find Over 19.5 points + rebounds at -120. However, given the matchup and forecast, this SGP on Diarra provides plenty of pop at +210.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 23 hrs, 47 min ago.
D.J. Burns has captured the nation with his play during NC State's Sweet 16 run and has been on fire since the postseason began in the ACC tournament. “The Dancing Bear” is averaging 16.6 points in just over 24 minutes of floor time. He’s coming off his second-highest scoring effort of the season, with 24 points in the overtime win against Oakland. That showing and Burns’ exploding popularity has his scoring prop for Friday’s Sweet 16 at 14.5 points O/U with the Over juiced to -135. This could be the perfect time to buy back the Under on Burns. On the season, Burns averaged 12.8 points per game and scored 15 points or more in only four of 20 conference contest before catching fire in the ACC tournament (in which he put up 15-plus in three of five games). Marquette is sound defensively and player projections have Burns forecasted for less than 15 in about 25 minutes of play.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 23 hrs, 34 min ago.
These teams combined for just 136 points when they clashed in November but expect far more scoring this time. Keep in mind that they went a combined 10-49 (20.4%) from deep in that contest and had 26 turnovers. Since both sides typically shoot lights out from the arc and limit turnovers while neither team defends threes well or pressures ball-handlers, positive regression is likely. Purdue is third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while Gonzaga is seventh and the Zags love to push the pace. Their transition offense and cutters will be tough for Purdue to stop but they won't have any answer inside for Zach Edey (24.5 ppg on 62.3 FG%). The O/U is still available at 154 with KenPom projecting a total of 158 and Bart Torvik projecting 159.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 2 days, 1 hrs, 18 min ago.
Jared McCain's 3-point prop for Friday’s Sweet 16 game has the Under 2.5 makes at -170, which doesn’t bode well for this point total either. In the 20 games in which he made two or fewer 3-pointers, McCain has scored 14 or more points only three times and averaged just 9.65 points in those contests. Before making eight triples against JMU, McCain wasn’t shooting the ball that well coming into the NCAA. He went 2 for 6 in the Round of 64 win over Vermont and finished with 15 points and was 0 for 3 on triples in the ACC tournament loss to NC State. The Cougars get their heels above the 3-point arc and allow foes to fire at just a 30% clip, giving up only 6.1 makes from distance per outing. The Under 13.5 points for McCain is priced as high as -125 but you can get a discount at -115 at bet365.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 19 hrs, 41 min ago.
When the going gets tough, Mitchell gets going. The 6-foot-9 sophomore isn’t breaking down checks one-on-one or draining step-back jumpers. He’s finishing at the rim, grabbing offensive boards for putbacks, and getting to the foul line. For everything the Cougars do well on defense, allowing offensive rebounds and sending teams to the line are two of the softer spots for UH. Mitchell is second on the Dukies in free-throw attempts (shooting 63% from the foul line) and averaged 2.3 offensive rebounds an outing. He averages more than 12 points on the season and has put up 10 or more in 18 of his previous 25 games. He’s played heavier minutes in the postseason and Mitchell projects for more than 10 points versus Houston.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 19 hrs, 38 min ago.
While the Cougars don’t give up many points – and therefore assists – the buckets they do budge on come from passing, leaving UH with an assist-to-FGM rate of 59.5% (350th). Duke, conversely, is at its best when moving the ball to the open man. The Blue Devils sit 42ndin total assists per contest and boast an assist-to-FGM rate of 54.5%. Tyrese Proctor is the guy doing most of the wheeling and dealing for the Dukies. He leads the team with 3.7 assists an outing and at 6-foot-5, he has a huge advantage seeing over the shorter Houston perimeter defenders. Proctor has been logging major minutes at the end of the year, playing the full 40 in closer contests versus NC State (twice) and UNC. Player projections forecast more than 3.5 assists should he play 37 minutes or more Friday. Some sharper books are at -119 on Over 3.5 assists, so we'll take the discount vig.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 19 hrs, 35 min ago.
Knecht was named SEC Player of the Year and and averaged 25.5 ppg on 48/42/73 shooting splits during conference play. Knecht struggled against Texas in the second round, going just 1-8 from deep and 4-10 from inside the arc. Despite that off-night he still finished with 18 points and has scored 22+ points in 15 of his last 20 games. The Bluejays do an excellent job of defending the rim but are vulnerable on the perimeter where they don't apply pressure and sit outside the Top 200 at allowing high quality three-pointers. They force foes into a ton of looks from midrange but are below average at defending those shots and Knecht thrives from that area. He ranks in the top 15th percentile of all players in midrange frequency and in the top 10th percentile in midrange efficiency.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 day, 22 hrs, 40 min ago.
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