HOU 2.5 o43.0
NYJ -2.5 u43.0
MIA 6.5 o49.5
BUF -6.5 u49.5
DAL 3.0 o51.5
ATL -3.0 u51.5
NO -7.0 o43.5
CAR 7.0 u43.5
LV 7.5 o46.0
CIN -7.5 u46.0
DEN 10.0 o46.5
BAL -10.0 u46.5
WAS -3.5 o44.0
NYG 3.5 u44.0
LAC -2.0 o43.0
CLE 2.0 u43.0
NE 3.5 o38.0
TEN -3.5 u38.0
CHI 1.0 o44.5
ARI -1.0 u44.5
JAC 7.5 o45.5
PHI -7.5 u45.5
LA -1.0 o47.5
SEA 1.0 u47.5
DET -3.0 o48.5
GB 3.0 u48.5
IND 5.0 o46.5
MIN -5.0 u46.5
TB 8.5 o46.0
KC -8.5 u46.0
Pittsburgh 1st AFC North6-2
Atlanta 1st NFC South5-3

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta props

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Kyle Pitts Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

K. Pitts
tight end TE • Atlanta
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.6
Best Odds
Over
-165

The Falcons offense has played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends. Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 94th percentile for TEs. The Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Kyle Pitts

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.6
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.6

The Falcons offense has played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among tight ends. Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 94th percentile for TEs. The Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Najee Harris Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

N. Harris
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Over
+110
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Over
+110
Projection Rating

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's LB corps has been awful last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Najee Harris

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.7
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.7

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's LB corps has been awful last year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Bijan Robinson Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

B. Robinson
running back RB • Atlanta
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4
Best Odds
Over
-115

The Falcons offense has played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 69.7% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 100th percentile among running backs with 6.2 targets. The Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Bijan Robinson

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4

The Falcons offense has played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 69.7% of his offense's dropbacks last year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 100th percentile among running backs with 6.2 targets. The Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Drake London Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.3
Best Odds
Over
-140

The Falcons offense has played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The model projects Drake London to garner 8.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts. Drake London has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.4% last year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs. With a remarkable 4.3 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) last year, Drake London places among the best WRs in the game in football.

Drake London

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.3
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.3

The Falcons offense has played at the 3rd-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 26.79 seconds per play. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The model projects Drake London to garner 8.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts. Drake London has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.4% last year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs. With a remarkable 4.3 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) last year, Drake London places among the best WRs in the game in football.

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.8
Best Odds
Over
-125

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Pat Freiermuth has run a route on 69.7% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs. The model projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 4.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends. Pat Freiermuth comes in as one of the best tight ends in the pass game last year, averaging an outstanding 3.4 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Pat Freiermuth

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.8
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.8

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Pat Freiermuth has run a route on 69.7% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs. The model projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 4.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends. Pat Freiermuth comes in as one of the best tight ends in the pass game last year, averaging an outstanding 3.4 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

George Pickens Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.6
Best Odds
Over
-128

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. George Pickens has run a route on 95.1% of his offense's passing plays last year, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. The projections expect George Pickens to total 6.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. George Pickens profiles as one of the leading WRs in the NFL last year, averaging a remarkable 4.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

George Pickens

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.6
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.6

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-most on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. George Pickens has run a route on 95.1% of his offense's passing plays last year, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. The projections expect George Pickens to total 6.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. George Pickens profiles as one of the leading WRs in the NFL last year, averaging a remarkable 4.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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