Tampa Bay @ Boston props

Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. In the league, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Randy Arozarena hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Despite posting a .266 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Randy Arozarena has suffered from bad luck given the .072 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela is notably athletic, grading out in the 90th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.9 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Ben Rortvedt will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Ben Rortvedt hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. With a 1.65 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Ben Rortvedt has displayed good plate discipline, grading out in the 88th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF fences in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Tyler O'Neill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Cooper in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Garrett Cooper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Garrett Cooper will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. When it comes to his batting average, Garrett Cooper has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .249 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .268.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 11th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Yandy Diaz has had some very poor luck this year. His .296 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .340.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Richie Palacios will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Posting a .344 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Richie Palacios is positioned in the 86th percentile. By putting up a .277 batting average since the start of last season, Richie Palacios is positioned in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. David Hamilton will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP. David Hamilton has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. David Hamilton will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF fences in MLB are found in Fenway Park. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jose Caballero ranks in the 93rd percentile with a 20.9° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Dominic Smith will have the upper hand in today's game. Dominic Smith will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP. Dominic Smith has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Dominic Smith will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for pitching on the slate today. Among every team today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays. Jarren Duran's quickness has dropped off this season. His 29.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.01 ft/sec now. Since the start of last season, Jarren Duran's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 20th percentile at 90.3 mph.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. In the league, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Connor Wong is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest LF fences in MLB are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's game.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (44.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Isaac Paredes tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 99th percentile with a 22.1° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in baseball.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for lefty batting average. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley in today's matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Wilyer Abreu has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.231) suggests that Jose Siri has been lucky this year with his .239 actual wOBA. Since the start of last season, Jose Siri's 12.7% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 86th percentile among his peers. Jose Siri grades out in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (19.2% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent. Amed Rosario is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Amed Rosario hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Amed Rosario has recorded a .284 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Vaughn Grissom's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Vaughn Grissom has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Vaughn Grissom will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.288) may lead us to conclude that Vaughn Grissom has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .238 actual wOBA.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Reese McGuire has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.