Arsenal looks to move back atop the table when they visit Old Trafford to face Manchester United.
The Gunners must win out and hope that Manchester City drop one of their final two matches, so there’s no room for error in the Premier League odds. They’ll look to take advantage of a demoralized and depleted Manchester United side and double up on the Red Devils for the first time in 17 years.
Erik ten Hag’s likely a lame-duck manager, having watched his side lose a club-record 13th Premier League match last weekend. After complaining nearly all season about a missed penalty in the reverse fixture, he could exact some revenge and end Arsenal’s title hopes.
Find out why that’s unlikely to happen for the home side in our Premier League picks and predictions for Manchester United vs Arsenal on Sunday, May 11.
EPL predictions for Manchester United vs Arsenal
My best bet:
Arsenal team total Over 2.5 (-109 at TonyBet)
My analysis
When Arsenal played at Tottenham a couple of weeks ago, I gave out a first-half moneyline play for the Gunners. I did so because they were priced very kindly, but also because Arsenal have been outstanding at getting early leads while preventing goals at the other end. In addition, they were facing a Spurs outfit that couldn’t stop giving up first-half goals.
While I expected them to lead at halftime, I didn’t anticipate them to be up 3-0 at the break. They blitzed Spurs by tearing through their midfield and taking advantage of mistakes and turnovers with lethal efficiency.
In their last 12 matches, the Red Devils have allowed their opponents to put 76 shots on goal. To put that into perspective, Arsenal have allowed 76 shots on target in 36 Premier League outings all season.
Despite an xG on the season of just 71.7 goals, the Gunners have posted 88 goals to pace the Premier League heading into this weekend. Their 199 shots on goal are the third-most in the league, as are their 610 shots in total.
While this data doesn’t necessarily mean the Gunners would push for goals here if they get a comfortable lead, Manchester City’s 4-0 win over Fulham on Saturday morning changed things.
Arsenal’s superior goal differential — the first tiebreaker in the title race — is nearly gone, standing at just two heading into Sunday. So is their lead, with City moving ahead by two points with both clubs having played 36 matches. That means Arsenal must not only win, but they must do so by as many goals as possible.
Considering Manchester United’s defensive woes and injury concerns, I expect a plethora of attempts coming in Andre Onana’s direction. Look for them to put up three goals for the third straight meeting with the Red Devils.
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Manchester United vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Arsenal 3+ goals / Arsenal 20+ shots
Kai Havertz to score or assist
Andre Onana 5+ saves
Kai Havertz is a physical player with three goals and an assist in his last three matches. He will look to cause problems for Jonny Evans and Casemiro, who were torn apart by Crystal Palace in a 4-0 defeat last weekend.
While they only had nine shots against Spurs, that’s the outlier for a club that has registered 24 or more shots in three of its last four matches. On the flip side, the Red Devils last 13 matches have seen their opponent take 20+ shots on nine occasions, with Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City each taking 26 or more.
Those extra shots have led to Onana being a busy man. He’s got six saves in each of his last two matches, including their loss to Palace. Given Arsenal’s need to keep scoring, I see him getting extra chances to make stops.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Manchester United vs Arsenal odds
Manchester United vs Arsenal live odds
Manchester United vs Arsenal opening odds
- Moneyline: Man United +575 | Arsenal -250
- Draw: +425
- Over/Under: Over 3 | Under 3
Manchester United vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
- Arsenal are an overwhelming favorite at -270, having been priced at more than -300 at one point.
- Arsenal have lost 10 of their last 16 Premier League matches at Old Trafford
- The total sits at 3.5 goals for this one, with the Over slightly juiced.
- There have been 4+ goals scored in five straight Premier League meetings between these sides.
Manchester United vs Arsenal game info
| Location: | Old Trafford, Manchester, England |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-12-2024 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | 70F, 8-15 mph wind, 5% POP |
 Recent EPL form |
L-D-W-D-D |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-W-W-L |
Manchester United vs Arsenal key injuries
Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez D (Doubtful), Marcus Rashford F (Questionable), Harry Maguire D (Out), Raphael Varane D (Out), Luke Shaw D (Out), Mason Mount M (Out), Bruno Fernandes M (Questionable), Scott McTominay M (Questionable).
Arsenal: Jurrien Timber D (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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