2024 US Election odds: Republican Vice Presidential Candidates Come into Focus

Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the upcoming US presidential election, but who will he choose as his running mate?

Mar 26, 2024 • 08:14 ET
Will Donald Trump select Vivek Ramaswamy as his running mate in 2024?
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The 2024 US Presidential Election is months away and while we know that Donald Trump and Joe Biden will almost certainly face off for the presidency, there's still plenty of speculation about who Trump will choose as his vice presidential candidate. 

The VP odds board for the Republican Party has seen tons of volatility over the last few months with Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, and Kristi Noem, all boasting the best odds at one point in time and now looking like long-shots. 

Political insiders have suggested that Trump has narrowed his VP shortlist down to four names but there are dozens of other betting options to consider so take a look at the latest Republican vice presidential nominee odds below.

2024 Republican vice presidential nominee odds

Candidate Odds at bet365
Doug Borgum +400
Tim Scott +450
J.D. Vance +600
Tulsi Gabbard +700
Marco Rubio +800
Elsie Stefanik +1,200
Ben Carson +1,600
Lee Zeldin +2,000
Nikki Haley +2,500
Sarah Huckabee Sanders +2,800
Vivek Ramaswamy +3,300
Mike Pompeo +3,300
Michael Flynn +3,300
Robert Kennedy Jr. +3,300
Byron Donalds +4,000
Ron DeSantis +5,000
Tucker Carlson +5,000
Kristi Noem +6,600
Mike Pence +8,000

Odds as of May 15, 2024.

Who are the favorites to be chosen as Republican VP candidate?

There's a bit of a logjam atop the VP odds board with Doug Borgum in first place at +400, followed closely by Tim Scott (+450), J.D. Vance (+600), Tulsi Gabbard (+700), and Marco Rubio (+800). With the exception of Gabbard, the four others were recently reported to be on the shortlist of Trump's VP candidates according to Bloomberg News.

Other candidates have seen their odds plummet, including one-time favorites Vivek Ramaswamy (+3,300), Ron DeSantis (+5,000), and Kristi Noem (+6,600)

Doug Burgum's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

Doug Burgum has moved from off the board entirely to becoming the VP favorite at +400. Burgum sold his software company to Microsoft in 2001 and then became senior VP at Microsoft before serving as the governor of North Dakota since 2016. 

Burgum campaigned to become the Republican Presidential candidate last year. You might not have hear about that, since his campaign didn't get much publicity or traction and he dropped out in December to become an energy policy advisor for Trump. 

Burgum has been campaigning for Trump, who has shown mutual admiration by praising Burgum and saying that he wants him to be an important member of his next administration. According to insiders close to Trump, Burgum is on the shortlist of potential running mates.

That said, Burgum has a low public profile and he doesn't bring anything to the table that Trump's other VP candidates don't. It seems more likely that he'll end up with a different position, such as Secretary of Energy, in Trump's cabinet. 

Tim Scott's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

While some VP candidates have seen their odds rise and fall, Scott has been near the top of the board since books opened this market

Party nominees typically choose a running mate to balance the ticket. That means picking a VP candidate who can win over key demographic groups that the nominees themselves might not have much influence over. In Trump's case that would mean moderates, women, and the Hispanic and black communities.  

With current president Joe Biden losing support among black voters in the latest polls, Trump has a great opportunity to leverage votes from a demographic that Republicans have often missed out on. Picking Scott, the lone Black Republican in the Senate, would likely help in that area.

Scott has a strong track record with fundraising and has generally been on good terms with Trump in the past. In fact, he was one of the few Republican presidential candidates that Trump chose not to criticize last year.

Kristi Noem's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

Kristi Noem has the shortest odds at +450, which might be a bargain considering the mutual respect that exists between her and Trump. Noem was elected as South Dakota's first female governor in 2018 and has staunchly been on the MAGA side of culture war issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic response, anti-abortion, gun rights, and same-sex marriage.

She has also been campaigning on behalf of Trump and has said that she would be his running mate "in a heartbeat." For his part, Trump has stated that he "likes the concept" of picking a woman as his running mate and said he would consider Noem, describing her as "fantastic." 

Noem's gender and relative youth (she recently turned 51) would bring balance to the ticket, although not representing a swing state might work against her.

Tim Scott's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

With current president Joe Biden losing support among black voters in the latest polls, Trump has a great opportunity to leverage votes from a demographic Republicans have often missed out on. Picking Scott, the lone Black Republican in the Senate, would likely help in that area.

Scott has a strong track record with fundraising and has generally been on good terms with Trump in the past and was one of the few Republican presidential candidates that Trump chose not to criticize last year.

It's also worth mentioning that Scott was appointed to the Senate by Nikki Haley in 2012, so not only would he be a good fit as Trump's potential running mate, but he might also be a strong VP candidate if Haley pulls off the upset and wins the Republican nomination.

However, after Scott suspended his presidential campaign in November, he didn't endorse another candidate and said "Being vice president has never been on my to-do list for this campaign and it’s certainly not there now.”

Vivek Ramaswamy odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

Once seen as one of Trump's greatest challengers, Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his campaign on January 15 after a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses. The biotech billionaire admitted he saw no path to victory "absent things we don't want to see happen in this country."

Unlike some of the other GOP presidential candidates, Ramaswamy remained extremely supportive of Trump throughout his campaign and his age and anti-woke populism could make him a perfect running mate - and eventual heir - to the aging real estate tycoon. 

Elsie Stefanik's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

Stefanik is behind Gabbard on the VP odds board at +900, and at just 39 years of age, represents an even younger option. While Stefanik doesn't have as high of a profile as others on this list, she gained national attention last month when she blasted university presidents over allegations of antisemitism. 

Stefanik is a rising star in the GOP and has climbed up the ranks to sit as the chair of the House Republican Conference — making her the fourth-ranking House Republican. Her fierce loyalty to Trump is also a point in her favor since she served on his impeachment defense team and filed an ethics complaint against the judge who oversaw his civil fraud trial in New York.

Ben Carson's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

It's hard to imagine two men from more different backgrounds than Trump and Ben Carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon widely lauded for his strong values and integrity. However, the pair have a history of working well together, dating back to Trump's presidency when Carson served with distinction as his Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

Unlike many of the candidates on this list, Carson has repeatedly gone out of his way to avoid criticizing Trump and appears to have earned his trust during their time together in office. His potential popularity with African American voters is also another in a long line of advantages working in Carson's favor. 

Nikki Haley's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

The former Governor of South Carolina and the 29th US ambassador to the United Nations, Haley ticks many boxes due to her gender, age, ethnicity, and political experience. She also might be able to bring the Never Trumpers to vote for the GOP in 2024 — which would be a massive boon for the party with Trump often alienating moderates.

However, while Haley might make strategic sense, there are plenty of reasons to think that she's a poor fit for Trump's ticket. Not only was she Trump's top GOP challenger (albeit far behind on Super Tuesday), but she has been vocally critical of him during the primary debates. 

While she still describes herself as an ally of of Trump, he likely doesn't see it that way anymore as he has slammed her as a "birdbrain" who "doesn't have the talent or temperament to do the job." Trump has made it clear that he values loyalty, and former advisor Steven Bannon, who has predicted that Trump will choose a woman as his VP, has warned against picking Haley.

Tucker Carlson's odds of becoming the Republican VP candidate

Tucker Carlson has a massive following and is arguably the most influential conservative political pundit in the country. A strong supporter of the MAGA movement, Carlson had previously expressed harsh criticism of Trump in private messages but continues to champion the former president publicly. 

When Trump skipped the first GOP debates in August, he instead chose to be interviewed by Carlson and he reportedly also took advice from Carlson when tensions with Iran were heating up. In November, Trump said he would consider Carlson for VP, and reports from Axios claimed that Melania Trump wants the former Fox News host as her husband's running mate. 

However, Carlson launched his streaming news service "Tucker Carlson Network" just three weeks ago and has stated that he doesn't see himself as "suited" for the position. With no experience working in politics and not bringing any balance to Trump's ticket, it would be an uphill battle for Carlson here.

When will the vice presidential candidate be chosen?

It's very likely Donald Trump and other GOP presidential candidates will name their running mate before the Republican National Convention begins on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

How to bet on political odds

While the most popular bet is who will become the next US president, plenty of other odds are offered as well. Before the Democratic and Republican candidates are announced, you can bet on 2024 Republican nominee odds, 2024 Democratic nominee odds. You can also wager on which party will win the election, which presidential candidate will win the popular vote, and even who will win in different states. 

Keep up with current events

Follow current events and what is going on in the political world. That said, don't put too much stock in small events. An embarrassing mistake or salacious scandal might look bad at first light but in the grand scheme of things might not amount to much.

You can however take advantage of such over-reactions if your timing is right. For example, if your preferred candidate takes a hit in public perception their odds to win will likely go down as well. If you don't think the incident will have a long-term impact then you can grab your candidate at a better number than before. 

Also keep in mind that articles about politics, especially editorial stories, tend to be partisan so try to read about events from as many different perspectives as possible in order to get the big picture. 

Debates and changes in political alliances can occasionally turn the tide as well, and sportsbooks can take a bit of time to adjust political odds after those events. 

Follow the latest polls

Now this one is obviously far from foolproof as anyone who thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in during the 2016 election can attest. National polls are a flawed tool but they can serve as a solid indication of which way certain demographics are leaning or gauge changes in popularity for a particular candidate. 

The Gallup polls on presidential job approval are one factor to consider while Real Clear Politics provides information from dozens of polls including the general election. Another useful website is 270 to Win, which has a consensus electoral map based on current ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections.

Be realistic

This is another one that comes with a bit of a caveat. After all, Trump himself was one heck of a long shot before he took the Oval Office. But in general, when betting on politics stay away from those that are clearly on the outside looking in. After all, this is still a democracy and there are procedures.

Where can I bet on US presidential election odds?

Not all books are allowed to offer wagering on US politics. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what special and political betting options they have available.

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