The NHL playoffs continue tonight as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Dallas Stars in Game 6 of this first-round series.
My Stars vs Golden Knights predictions for May 3 explain why I think this series is as good as over, and you can find out why in my NHL picks below.
Stars vs Golden Knights prediction
My best bet
Stars moneyline (-103 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
I got greedy in Game 5, taking the Dallas Stars –1.5 instead of the moneyline. Although, they were literally feet in front of an open net and couldn’t bury it!
I digress.
Learning from that mistake, I'm once again going to back the Stars in Game, but this time on the moneyline! Dallas continues to turn this series on its head, winning straight games after dropping the first two at home.
Across those three wins, goaltender Jake Oettinger is 3-0 with a commanding .937 SV% and 1.84 GAA. This hot streak is a continuation of a dominating end to the regular season. Oettinger is now 10-3 over his past 13 starts with a .934 SV% and 1.74 GAA. This success is likely to continue against a Vegas Golden Knights offense struggling to generate high-danger scoring chances.
Among the 16 playoff teams, the Knights rank second-to-last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). On the other hand, the Stars rank fourth in the same category.
Not only does Dallas trump the Golden Knights in that key analytic, but it also ranks higher in both expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and expected goal differential per 60 minutes. That just leaves us with the goaltending situation, which is a question mark for Vegas after it went back to Adin Hill in Game 5.
I expect Vegas to return the crease to Logan Thompson after the Game 5 loss, but he has also allowed three goals in each of his past two starts against the Stars — losing in both games.
Stars vs Golden Knights same-game parlay (SGP)
Stars moneyline
Jason Robertson anytime goalscorer
Since I'm backing Dallas to win, I need some of its skaters to find the back of the net. Enter Jason Robertson, who scored what ended up being the game-winning goal of Wednesday’s contest.
Robertson has now scored in three of the five games in this series, which is tied for the team lead. He also ranks second on the team in shots on goal and is the primary triggerman on the first power-play unit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Golden Knights odds
Stars vs Golden Knights live odds
Stars vs Golden Knights opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas -1.5 (+241) | Vegas +1.5 (-284)
- Moneyline: Dallas -103 | Vegas -110
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-114) | Under 5.5 (-101)
Stars vs Golden Knights moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This game essentially opened as a pick ‘em and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I think the market will move this line in the Stars’ direction, given the recent three games, although Vegas’ home-ice advantage could result in a buyback if the line drifts too far.
- The total opened at 5.5 and also remains at that price.
- Given that there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 18 of the past 25 meetings between these two teams, I don’t think this total will get up to six.
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Stars vs Golden Knights trend
Dallas has won 15 of its last 19 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Golden Knights.
Stars vs Golden Knights game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Stars vs Golden Knights latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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