After splitting the first two games in Dallas, it’s down to a Best-of-5 series as the scene shifts to the Mile High City for tonight's Game 3 between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche in the NHL playoffs.
Colorado, undefeated at home in the postseason, has been tabbed as a -133 moneyline favorite, and my Stars vs. Avalanche prediction likes the goalies to be buried in rubber.
Check my free NHL picks for May 11 below.
Stars vs Avalanche prediction
My best bet
Over 6.5 (-102 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
There’s no surprise that offense is dominating this series.
The Avalanche were the league’s highest-scoring team in the regular season, averaging 3.68 goals per game.
The Avs haven’t missed a beat in these playoffs, putting up five goals per game to lead the league.
Perhaps the only thing that’s shocking are Colorado’s slow starts so far in this series. The Avs have dug themselves massive holes in both games, and digging out has been…eventful.
They fell behind 3-0 in Game 1, and were fortunate to force OT and win in the extra frame.
Colorado then found itself down 4-0 after two periods in Game 2, and while it closed to 4-3, Dallas potted an empty netter to ice it and win 5-3.
The Stars were right with Colorado offensively in the regular season, third in goals at 3.59 per game.
That wasn’t Dallas’ identity in Round 1, though, in a tightly-contested, close-checking slugfest with the Golden Knights. This series has turned them back into that scoring force, and they could legit be up 2-0 if they could have held onto that Game 1 lead.
Dallas isn’t a slouch defensively: Of the eight teams left in the tournament, it ranks fourth in goals against at 2.56 per contest.
However, it might be more important to keep scoring goals than worry about keeping them out, as Colorado’s defense is the shakiest left in the postseason. They rank last of the remaining teams in goals against, surrendering 3.29 per contest.
The two teams have hit the Over in both games, while Colorado averaged 5.5 goals per game on its own at Ball Arena in Round 1. The scoreboard lamps should again be lit up in an important Game 3.
Stars vs Avalanche same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 6.5 goals
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal
Joe Pavelski anytime goal
Is there ever a bad time to roll a Nathan MacKinnon goal-scoring prop into your SGP?
He’s currently in a tie for sixth in playoff scoring, just two points out of the top spot with three goals and eight assists.
Colorado’s Game 2 loss was the first time in seven postseason games that MacKinnon has been held off the scoresheet. He hasn’t been scoreless in back-to-back games since February 8 and 10, and the bounceback should be coming. MacKinnon has scored at least one goal in four of the Avalanche's last five home games against the Stars.
Dallas’ ultra-varied offense looked stunted against Vegas, but it’s starting to show itself in Round 2. All seven of the Stars’ goals have been scored by seven different players, and three of them put up their first goals of the playoffs. There’s another player that should be cracking that list soon.
Dallas had nine players with at least 52 points scored in the regular season, and only one — veteran Joe Pavelski, has yet to light the lamp in the postseason.
The second-leading scorer on the Stars, Pavelski has just a single assist through nine playoff games. He can’t stay silent against the Avs — especially not with his recent body of work against them.
In his last 12 regular season games against Colorado, Pavelski has tallied at least a point in nine of them, putting up nine goals and 14 points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Avalanche odds
Stars vs Avalanche live odds
Stars vs Avalanche opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas +1.5 | Colorado -1.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +115 | Colorado -129
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Stars vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Colorado has won five of the last seven vs the Stars.
- Dallas is 2-4 this season as underdogs of +110 odds or longer.
- The Over has hit in seven of the last eight matchups.
- The Avalanche have an Over record of 8-2-0 in their last 10.
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Stars vs Avalanche trend
Dallas has won four of its last five as Underdogs vs West opponents. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Avalanche.
Stars vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Stars vs Avalanche latest injuries
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