The Carolina Hurricanes have flipped the script on the New York Rangers, and the two teams are set to meet for Game 6 at PNC Arena tonight.
Home ice has been kind to Carolina winger Andrei Svechnikov dating back to the regular season, and his shot total is the focus of my Rangers vs. Canes prediction and NHL picks on May 16.
Rangers vs Hurricanes prediction
My best bet
Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 shots (-133 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Carolina Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov has been held to just two shots across the past two games despite registering 12 attempts, so the volume has been there even if the results haven't. The 23-year-old Russian has also been a force alongside Sebastian Aho and Jake Guentzel throughout the series, with the trio driving 5-on-5 possession with a 64.8 Corsi For percentage and 70.4% shot share against the New York Rangers.
Svechnikov has also paced the Hurricanes in shots (five) and attempts (11) with the man advantage while averaging a healthy 3:28 of PP time per game in Round 2.
Additionally, home ice was also favorable for Svechnikov’s shot volume during the regular season, and his home/road splits have been even more pronounced during the playoffs.
| Category | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Shots per game | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| Attempts per game | 8.6 | 4.6 |
| Shots per 60 | 14.89 | 3.95 |
| Attempts per 60 | 32.02 | 12.97 |
Finally, the Rangers have been far more vulnerable to opposing shooters on the highway dating back to the regular season. New York posted a 52.2 CF% at 5-on-5 at MSG during the regular season with a 48.1 CF% on the road, and the Blueshirts have dipped to respective 46.3% and 42.1% marks during the playoffs.
Rangers vs Hurricanes same-game parlay (SGP)
Andrei Svechnikov 3+ shots
Martin Necas 3+ shots
Seth Jarvis 2+ shots
Svechnikov isn’t the only Hurricane I expect to be taking advantage of the poor possession game of the Rangers. Carolina wingers Martin Necas and Seth Jarvis are both active shooters and receive consistent power-play time.
Necas is second in attempts (65) for the Canes in the playoffs after pacing the club in shots (230) and ranking second in attempts (437) during the regular season. He’s only converted 33.8% of his attempts into shots through 10 playoff games after converting at a 55.2% rate during the regular season. While shot blocking goes way up the playoffs, the pendulum has swung too far in this case.
Jarvis has been a far more consistent game-to-game shooter, and he’s registered two or more shots in five consecutive contests and eight of 10 during the playoffs.
All three of these Carolina wingers also skate on different lines at even strength, so they won’t steal shooting opportunities from one another. Finally, there is also an edge in the available odds with FanDuel pricing this same-game parlay at +300. The difference attaches a positive expected value of 5% to the +320 bet365 price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Hurricanes odds
Rangers vs Hurricanes live odds
Rangers vs Hurricanes opening odds
- Puck line: Carolina -1.5 (+163) | New York +1.5 (-187)
- Moneyline: Carolina -164 | New York +144
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (+104) | Under (-120)
Rangers vs Hurricanes moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been betting action on the Rangers moneyline to move the number from an opening +145 to +140 through Pinnacle as of Thursday morning.
- I wasn’t surprised to see the early support for New York after the Presidents’ Trophy winners won seven straight to open the postseason, but I also don’t anticipate seeing huge movement in either direction leading into puck drop.
- The consensus 5.5 total hasn’t seen a notable move in the odds as of Thursday morning, with the Under carrying the higher vig from shop to shop.
- As always, elimination games can throw a major wrench into totals because of the potential for a team to pull its goalie earlier if trailing, and especially if down by multiple goals.
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Rangers vs Hurricanes trend
Svechnikov has averaged 4.0 shots per home game compared to 1.4 on the road during the postseason. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Hurricanes.
Rangers vs Hurricanes game info
| Location: | PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-16-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Rangers vs Hurricanes latest injuries
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