The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will go head-to-head in the Western Conference Final beginning with Thursday’s Game 1, and I’ve got NHL picks for the series.
It took seven games for the Oilers to top the injury-ridden Vancouver Canucks, while the Stars took care of the Colorado Avalanche in six. Edmonton will go as far as the one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will take them, while Dallas counters with depth, postseason experience, and a trio of Conn Smythe odds contenders in Jake Oettinger, Miro Heiskanen, and Wyatt Johnston.
Here’s how I expect the series to play out.
All odds courtesy of BET99.
Oilers vs Stars series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Oilers (+100) |
To win |  Stars (-120) |
| Oilers -1.5 (OTB) |
Handicap | Stars +1.5 (OTB) |
Considering Dallas holds home-ice advantage in the series, these odds suggest the Stars and Oilers are nearly evenly matched. I’m not convinced the Oilers have the depth to hang with the Stars in a lengthy series, and goaltending is also a major concern for Edmonton.
Obviously, slowing down Oilers superstars McDavid and Draisaitl will be the top priority for the Stars, and Dallas No. 1 Jake Oettinger has been up to the task and bested the past two Stanley Cup champions in the past two rounds.
Oilers vs Stars series preview
Oilers statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 55.2 (3rd) | 49.1 (9th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 55.5 (3rd) | 51.3 (5th) |
| GF% | 55.8 (5th) | 51.9 (6th) |
| xGF% | 57.1 (1st) | 49.2 (9th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 57.3 (2nd) | 50.9 (6th) |
| Team SH% | 8.8 (14th) | 10.8 (1st) |
| Team SV% | .914 (13th) | .889 (14th) |
| PDO | 100.2 (15th) | 99.7 (8th) |
| PP% | 26.3 (4th) | 37.5 (1st) |
| PK% | 79.5 (15th) | 91.4 (1st) |
Special teams and special talents have carried the Edmonton Oilers through the first two rounds, and Edmonton’s Corsi For and expected goals percentages are better when adjusted for score and venue. Additionally, while the Oil were largely outplayed at five-on-five in the opening round against the Los Angeles Kings, Edmonton was better than Vancouver at 5-on-5 in Round 2.
The glaring concern remains the weak goaltending, and Edmonton is likely sporting an unsustainably high 10.8 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the special-teams numbers negatively regress, either.
If Edmonton No. 1 Stuart Skinner can find his game, the Oilers are capable of winning this series, I’m just not convinced he can flip the switch playing behind a top-heavy lineup and mistake-prone defense corps. He’s down to a .887 save percentage at 5-on-5 and .881 overall during the playoffs, after all.
Stars statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 53.2 (5th) | 49.4 (8th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 53.8 (5th) | 50.3 (8th) |
| GF% | 54.6 (6th) | 55.0 (2nd) |
| xGF% | 55.2 (3rd) | 54.5 (2nd) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 55.7 (3rd) | 55.5 (1st) |
| Team SH% | 9.4 (8th) | 7.6 (9th) |
| Team SV% | .912 (17th) | .941 (1st) |
| PDO | 100.6 (10th) | 101.7 (3rd) |
| PP% | 24.2 (6th) | 29.0 (4th) |
| PK% | 82.0 (8th) | 69.2 (11th) |
While there’s statistical correction ahead of Jake Oettinger’s .941 SV% at 5-on-5, his overall .918 mark is in range of the .913 SV% he posted across 164 games the past three regular seasons. Additionally, I’m expecting the Dallas offense to improve on its 7.6 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 to mitigate any decline in Oettinger’s play.
Where the Stars will be up against it is on special teams. Edmonton scored six more PP goals in Round 2 and is up to a postseason-high 15 across 12 games. Dallas has surrendered eight shorthanded goals through two rounds, and the Stars ranking 11th with a 69.2 PK% could prove problematic in short order if they don’t tidy up down a man.
The Stars did post an eighth-ranked 82.0 PK% during the regular season, though, and Dallas has averaged the least amount of shorthanded ice time per game (3:05) and times shorthanded per game (2.0) in the playoffs. Remaining disciplined will alleviate the potential Edmonton PP advantage, too.
All statistics are at five-on-five except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.
Oilers vs Stars series props
Oilers vs Stars correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers |
+1,200 | +700 | +450 | +550 |
| Stars |
+1,200 | +600 | +550 | +450 |
Pick: Stars to win 4-2 (+550 at BET99)
Wins are wins, but there was plenty to nitpick about Edmonton eking out of Round 2 and allowing Vancouver to take them to seven games. The Oilers didn’t receive quality goaltending, and aside from a sterling series from top-pair defensemen Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, secondary blue-liners Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and Brett Kulak were exposed. Of course, Dallas also has a deeper lineup with more scoring depth to test the second and third Edmonton pairings in Round 3 far more than Vancouver did in Round 2.
Additionally, while I’m anticipating a slight decline in Oettinger’s numbers, there is oodles of room for regression before Dallas is in trouble. Oettinger has 39 postseason starts on his resume, and the Stars are also playing excellent team defense at 5-on-5 with the fewest goals against (1.5) and second-fewest expected goals against (2.13) per 60 minutes this postseason.
Dallas isn’t going to shut down the Edmonton offensive attack entirely, but the Stars can slow the Oilers down and put extra pressure on the Edmonton supporting cast and goaltending. And, the Oil relying on their depth to outproduce the Stars is a losing formula unless Skinner matches Oettinger’s play, and that’s another tall order.
Oilers vs Stars series best bet
Pick: Stars to win series (-120 at BET99)
I also value Dallas taking down a star-driven Avalanche squad in six games in Round 2. The Stars held Colorado go-to scorers Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen each to just five points, and defenseman Cale Makar finished with six points. Additionally, both MacKinnon and Makar failed to register a point in three games each.
The Stars just showed off the blueprint to slowing down elite scorers, and I expect them to keep Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl quiet enough to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final.
