The Florida Panthers will bring their brooms to Amalie Arena tonight looking for their first playoff sweep in franchise history.
Oddsmakers are wary of this one getting back to Sunrise, as the Tampa Bay Lightning are +108 home underdogs in the NHL odds.
Does the all-Florida showdown end in four? Read below for my free Panthers vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks for Saturday, April 27.
Panthers vs Lightning prediction
My best bet
Panthers moneyline (-123 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
As if a lack of offense wasn’t already enough to overcome in this series, the Tampa Bay Lightning couldn’t hold down a 2-1 lead in Game 3, as a three-goal run by the Florida Panthers would eventually hold up in a 5-3 win.
Tampa has been outshot in seven straight games, and have scored more than two goals just twice in that stretch. Home ice hasn’t been much help, either. The Lightning have lost four of six at Amalie, surrendering 3.67 goals per game. That’s part of a larger six-game losing skid at home in the playoffs — the last three as betting favorites.
The struggles of Nikita Kucherov — the scoring leader in the regular season — has also contributed to the misery. While he has an assist in each game of the series, Kucherov has yet to light the lamp. He has a single tally in his last nine, and just two in his last 17 playoff games.
Tampa’s struggles with Florida aren’t just in the postseason, as the Panthers have now taken seven of the last eight matchups.
Florida seems to have caught the wave of momentum at just the right time, as it has now ripped off seven straight wins. The balance of offense and defense has been their key to success.
They have outscored the opposition 25-11 over the last seven, including an 11-7 advantage over the Bolts in the series. Neutralizing Tampa’s powerplay — which ranked first in the NHL this year with a 28.8% success rate — has also been key. Florida has killed off 10 of 12 powerplay opportunities, including a perfect kill in four chances last time out.
At 26-11-4, the Panthers are tied with the most road wins in the NHL this season, and have reeled off four straight in Tampa. With their Top 5 scoring offense stalled, the Lightning’s early exit looks inevitable on Saturday.
Panthers vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Panthers moneyline
Matthew Tkachuk anytime goal
Sam Reinhart 1+ points
There's nowhere else I’d rather build my SGP around than two of the most prominent Panthers in this series.
Matthew Tkachuk was the catalyst and closer in Game 3, opening the scoring and finishing things off with an empty-netter, giving him three goals in the series and six goals in the last nine games overall. As long as he keeps pucks going to the net — he has had at least four shots in every game in this series — Tkachuk is a good bet to light the lamp.
Sam Reinhart has taken his goal-scoring prowess from the regular season right into the playoffs, with two goals against the Lightning. Reinhart ended the regular season hot, with points in 11 of 13 games, making it 13 of 15 overall.
Like Tkachuk, Reinhart has been getting pucks on net, with 14 shots total across three games. If Florida plans on closing things out in four, Reinhart should play a prominent role this Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Panthers vs Lightning odds
Panthers vs Lightning live odds
Panthers vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Florida -1.5 | Tampa Bay +1.5
- Moneyline: Florida -122 | Tampa Bay +108
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Panthers vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Florida has won seven straight games, six of those as the betting favorite.
- Tampa Bay has lost four straight games just one time this season.
- The Panthers have gone Under the total in six of their last eight.
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Panthers vs Lightning trend
The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last six games as underdogs. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Lightning.
Panthers vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, truTV |
Panthers vs Lightning latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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