We’ve got four games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The NHL odds favor Tampa tonight, and time is running out for Auston Matthews to hit 70 goals. Can he get it done in the Leafs' season finale?
Find out if I’m backing the Leafs sniper in my free NHL picks and Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions for this Wednesday, April 17 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction
My best bet
Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots on goal (-150 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet for the fourth and final time this season as they both wrap up their regular seasons tonight at Amalie Arena. The Buds are playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing to Florida last night, while the Bolts enter tonight on a three-game losing streak.
While both teams would like to win the game, the main objective is to leave the game unscathed by injury. Well, that, and an Auston Matthews goal.
The Leafs sniper was unable to score last night in Florida and now has just one more game left to become the first player in 31 years to reach the 70-goal plateau. Things do stack up well for this to happen tonight, however.
I think he’ll be firing everything and anything on net to try and make it happen. Matthews has been a shooting machine of late as he strives for 70 goals, as he’s averaging 5.6 shots per game over his last 12. He’s been able to convert 11 of those shots into goals, including one in the last meeting between these two teams where Matthews scored while registering six shots.
He’s registered 5+ shots in six of the last seven regular season meetings against Tampa Bay. With added motivation to score goal No. 70 tonight, I’d expect that trend to continue.
As for the Lightning, they’ve been struggling in their own end down the stretch, giving up a average of 31.7 shots per game over their last three outings while also allowing 33.53 scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Time is running out for Matthews to make history, so I fully anticipate his teammates force-feeding him pucks all night long until he puts one into the back of the net and reaches that milestone.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals
Maple Leafs first to score
For Leg 1 of my same-game parlay, we’ll mirror my shots prop with an anytime goal from the league's best scorer. Matthews has scored 10 times in his last nine games to get to 69 goals on the year. One more would grant him legend status, and I say he does it.
Next up, let's take the Leafs to go Over their team total of 3.5 goals. Toronto has the best road offense in the league, averaging 3.58 goals, and is likely shooting on Tomkins tonight. Plus, the Bolts have been leaky in their own end lately, which the Leafs should be able to capitalize on.
For my final leg, I’ll take the Leafs to score the first goal of the game. They’ve cashed this prop in 59% of their games this year and in eight of their last 10 outings. Meanwhile, the Bolts have given up the opening goal in seven of their last 10 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning live odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 | Tampa Bay -1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +107 | Tampa Bay -120
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Maple Leafs vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the road dogs at +110, with the Lightning getting -130 odds as home favorites.
- The Buds are 7-3 on the moneyline over the last 10 meetings against the Bolts, who’ve lost four of their last five games down the stretch. If Vasilevskiy is given the night off, I like the Leafs at plus-money here.
- The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5, with the Under favored at -115 while the Over is at -105 odds.
- The Over is 6-3-1 between these two teams across their last 10 meetings. Neither team has played great defensively of late, which could lead to increased scoring as well. I like the Over.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning trend
The Maple Leafs have hit the 3P moneyline in eight of their last 11 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, TNT |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
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