The Florida Panthers can punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals with a home-ice win over the Boston Bruins tonight.
Florida whooped Boston's ass in two of the last three games, and my Bruins vs. Panthers prediction expects another 60 minutes of pure domination from the Cats. Find out how they'll do it in my NHL picks for May 14.
Bruins vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Panthers in regulation (-127 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
There has been no comparison between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers in the 5-on-5 or special-teams numbers during this series, and what’s even more problematic for Boston is Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t even been particularly sharp with a ho-hum .900 SV% across his three consecutive wins.
The Bruins have lost the possession battle with a 38.3 CF% and 37.0% shot share at 5-on-5, and the Panthers have been better on both special teams with a 28.6% power play and 90.9% penalty kill. Additionally, while Boston goaltender Jeremy Swayman was solid in stopping 38 of 41 shots in Game 4, he’s still sporting an ugly .875 SV% and 4.57 GAA across his past three losses.
Swayman was never going to maintain the .955 SV% and 1.42 GAA he posted over his first seven postseason starts, and it took that superhero level of goaltending for Boston to advance to Round 2.
This also isn’t a scenario where the Bruins can just flip a switch and/or will their way to victory. Boston is inferior and can’t match the skill Florida has jumping the boards. With the Panthers holding the Bruins to just five goals over the past three games, there’s been no margin for error in the Boston net, either.
The Bruins are now trapped in a situation where it’s clear they need to generate more quality scoring chances, but they also need to do so without sacrificing their attention to defensive detail.
Florida closes out the series in five.
Bruins vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Panthers in regulation
Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 shots
Brandon Montour Over 2.5 shots
Panthers winger Vladimir Tarasenko has eight shots and 17 attempts since returning to the No. 1 line with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart three games ago. The trio have driven 5-on-5 possession with a 60.0 CF%, and Tarasenko is the primary shooter on the No. 2 power-play unit while averaging 2:47 of PP time per game during the series.
Florida defenseman Brandon Montour has cleared this total in four of his past five games, including three of four during Round 2. He’s fourth on the team with 24 attempts and quarterbacks the No. 1 power-play unit. I also value his offensively tilted role. Montour leads Florida defensemen in offensive-zone starts per 60 minutes (17.92) this postseason.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bruins vs Panthers odds
Bruins vs Panthers live odds
Bruins vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Boston +1.5 (-157) | Florida -1.5 (+139)
- Moneyline: Boston +170 | Florida -194
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-102) | Under 5.5 (-112)
Bruins vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been consistent line movement to the Florida side ahead of Game 5. The Panthers opened at -194 Sunday evening at Pinnable, and the Cats are trading at -208 as of Tuesday morning. For comparison, bet365 has moved from an opening Florida -200 to -220.
- I don’t anticipate significant movement to this moneyline leading into puck drop.
- The total is a consensus 5.5 with the Under carrying the higher vig, but there hasn’t been a significant adjustment to the odds on either side as of Tuesday morning.
- Totals can have an extra layer of drama in elimination games. There’s potential for Boston to pull its goalie earlier than we’d typically see if trailing or even way earlier if trailing by multiple goals.
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Bruins vs Panthers trend
Florida has won nine of its past 10 home games dating back to the regular season. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Panthers.
Bruins vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Bruins vs Panthers latest injuries
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