The Colorado Avalanche were the best home team in hockey this year but managed just two total goals in Games 3 and 4 and are now facing elimination tonight on the road in Dallas without one of their best players, Valeri Nichushkin.
It’s tough not to like the Dallas Stars tonight with how deflated Colorado was in Game 4 without its key players and with the Roope Hintz injury, there are some spots to take advantage of within the forward group. That's also leading to some possible negative game script for Nathan MacKinnon, which is good news for his Over shot props.
These are my best NHL picks for Avalanche vs. Stars on Wednesday, May 15.
Avalanche vs Stars prop picks and best bets for May 15
- Tyler Seguin Over 2.5 SOG (-120 at BET99)
- Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 PPP (+350 at BET99 for 0.5 units)
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 SOG (-105 at BET99)
Picks made on 5-15 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s Avalanche vs Stars prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Playing the opportunist
Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin is a cool 9-2 to the Over on his shots prop in the playoffs and 3-1 O/U in the series. That has all come on the third line and second power-play unit but Seguin could be headed for more ice time today with the uncertainty of Roope Hintz.
Hintz exited the last game with an upper-body injury and is a game-time decision. I’d lean more on doubtful than probable for him tonight. With Hintz out, Seguin played on the top line with Logan Stankoven and Jason Roberston, which could mean more shifts tonight, especially at home with the last change.
The Colorado Avalanche look defeated after losing Val Nichushkin for a second straight year and it showed in Game 4 that Dallas dominated.
Considering his hit rate and the possible promotion, it’s hard to pass up this play at -120.
Tyler Seguin prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-120 at BET99)
Prop bet #2: Room to grow
Wyatt Johnston has been the best skater in the playoffs for the Stars. The 21-year-old forward has seven goals and 11 points while playing on the second line and second power-play unit. That is why he is priced at +350 for a PP point, which is where it should be for a guy playing 35-40% of the power play. However, the second-year man would jump to the top unit and take some face-offs if Hintz doesn't play. That's making the +350 price for a PP point solid EV.
Johnston was on PP1 in Game 4 after Hintz exited. The Stars had just two power-play opportunities on Monday but went 1-for-2 with eight shots on goal.
The No.9 betting favorite for the Conn Smythe (+1,200) has three PP points in the playoffs already and bettors can beat the books to the Hintz news and get Wyatt for PP2 prices when he’ll be on the top unit.
It’s a half unit for me but the best path here is to wait on the official word with Hintz.
Wyatt Johnston prop: Over 0.5 power-play points (+350 at BET99 - 0.5 units)
Prop bet #3: Return of the MacK
Nathan MacKinnon has failed to hit five shots on net in this series but with everything on the line and Nichuskin out, he will get as many minutes as possible.
I see only two players who can change the game when needed: Connor McDavid and MacKinnon. Yes, Dallas has bottled him up in the series as he has just one point over the last three games, but down 3-1 in the series, on the road without the team’s leading scorer, it will be Nate Mac getting 25 minutes if possible.
The shooting volume is there as he had a team-high 12 shot attempts in Game 4, but with no juice needed to pay, I’m happy riding on the Over and expect more of those attempts to find Jake Oettinger tonight.
Colorado trailing would be the best scenario but this will be MacKinnon’s best effort of the season and I’m backing the Over on his shots at close to even money.
Nathan MacKinnon prop: Over 4.5 shots on goal (-105 at BET99)
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