Avalanche vs Stars Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NHL Playoff Game

The Dallas Stars have rattled off three straight wins and can advance to the Western Conference Finals with a win over the Colorado Avalanche on May 15. 

Jake Oettinger has held Colorado to a single goal in consecutive starts, and my Avalanche vs. Stars prediction is backing him to stop plenty more rubber tonight. Get all the deets in my NHL picks ahead!

Avalanche vs Stars prediction

My best bet
Jake Oettinger Over 27.5 saves (-106 at Pinnacle)

My analysis

Jake Oettinger has turned away 52 of 54 shots to put the Colorado Avalanche on the brink of elimination. I’m anticipating Colorado forcing the issue with an added emphasis on putting pucks on net early and often in Game 5, which sets up Oettinger to face enough shots to clear this saves total.

Colorado has won the 5-on-5 possession battle with a 55.8 Corsi For percentage and 55.5% shot share, and Oettinger stopped exactly 28 shots in Games 2 and 3. Additionally, the Dallas Stars missing top-six center Roope Hintz (upper body) tonight is a blow. He averaged 18:17 of ice time across the first 10 postseason games before being injured in Game 4, and replacing his minutes dilutes the Dallas depth.

Oettinger has also closed at a 28.5 saves total in three of the first four games of this series, and I think it’s an overadjustment to return the number to 27.5 in an elimination game. Colorado came out flat and never found its footing in Game 4, and while impossible to quantify, there’s no question Valeri Nichushkin's suspension had a major impact on the Avs.

Of course, the Avalanche were also without top-pairing defenseman Devon Toews on Monday, and his 57.1 CF% at 5-on-5 tops Colorado defensemen in the postseason. I expect Toews to return and play well in Game 5, and for the team as a whole to be better prepared and start on time Wednesday.

Avalanche vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)

Jake Oettinger Over 27.5 saves

Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 shots

Under 6.5 goals

+525 at DraftKings

I expect Nathan MacKinnon to lead the charge in the shots department tonight. Despite tilting the ice in his favor with a masterclass 67.3 CF% at 5-on-5 and recording a series-high 37 attempts, MacKinnon has only registered 14 shots. Look for big minutes and more attempts turning into shots from No. 29 in Game 5.

Big D is playing big-time defense, and as highlighted, Oettinger standing tall between the pipes has helped the Stars limit the Avs to just five goals over the past three games.

I anticipate Colorado driving the 5-on-5 play again while the Stars can play a patient, defense-first game and rely on Oettinger. Plus, after there were 15 goals through the first two games of their series, the Avs and Stars have combined for 11 the past two.

There’s also a notable gap in the available prices for this same-game parlay, with the +525 DraftKings odds presenting a positive expected value of 14% over the +450 bet365 odds.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Avalanche vs Stars odds

Avalanche vs Stars live odds

Avalanche vs Stars opening odds

• Puck line: Colorado +1.5 (-204) | Dallas -1.5 (+178)
• Moneyline: Colorado +122 | Dallas -138
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-115)

Avalanche vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Stars opened as a -138 home favorite through Pinnacle, and Dallas is trading at -146 as of Wednesday afternoon. There has been similar movement at other shops.
• I’m not expecting a huge shift in the numbers leading into puck drop, either. The Hintz injury was accounted for because there wasn’t a major adjustment following the announcement he wouldn’t suit up.
• This total is far more interesting because there isn’t a consensus number. Pinnacle has moved from 6.5 to 6.0, while bet365 remains at 6.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
• Pinnacle has the Over 6.0 with the higher vig, while bet365 has the Under 6.5 carrying the larger chalk.

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Avalanche vs Stars trend

Dallas starter Jake Oettinger has stopped 80 of 85 shots the past three games and cleared this 27.5 saves total twice. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Stars.

Avalanche vs Stars game info

Avalanche vs Stars latest injuries

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