Last week, we tried to look into the crystal ball and find some look-ahead NFL odds that if we bet right now — before the previous week's action even happened — we could get some value based on how the actual opening lines would turn out.
For Week 4, we took a swing at two different games... with some interesting results. The Chargers got waxed in Week 3 and have a litany of mounting injuries, so that early -7 did not turn out so well. We did get some good value with Packers -6, as they currently sit around -9.5 against New England, but we also got a boost from the Patriots not having their QB this week.
But hey, it's the NFL: Random stuff happens, so we'll take the win on getting the value, learn from the past and keep moving forward to do even better this week... which by that I mean next week... or something (it's best not to think too hard about the time correlation).
Either way, this week I've found one early Week 5 line that I think could interest you... today.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
| Teams | Current total |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers |
Over 47.5 |
 Buffalo Bills |
Under 47.5 |
We know the Buffalo Bills' offense is very, very good, but there are a few reasons to think that, come kickoff on October 9, this total will not be sitting at its current number, which is as high as 47.5.
First, the Bills could likely come into this game off what could be perceived as two "disappointing" offensive outputs: They mustered just 19 points at Miami, playing in extremely hot, humid conditions that led to a number of key players hitting the sidelines to recover throughout the game, while this weekend's game in Baltimore has a weather forecast that currently includes winds around 17 mph, with gusts up to 27 mph, and a 70% chance of precipitation.
Yes, those are unfortunate incidents that can depress numbers, but perception is important, and seeing the Bills drop two straight lower-scoring games could lead to this total creeping down a little.
Second, for as good as the Bills' offense is, the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense is very not good. Pittsburgh is currently 28th in total yards and 19th in points per game and will face a Bills defense that is banged up but has still allowed the fourth-fewest ppg in the league.
Third, looking at the Bills' Week 2 home game vs. Tennessee (which is ahead of Pittsburgh in total yardage, ppg, and offensive Expected Points Added), that line opened as high at 51 at some books and was consistently bet down throughout the week to finish at 47.
The Over cashed in that game by one point as Buffalo won 41-7, but the Steelers defense ranks better than Tennessee, so 41 points again might be a stretch.
Looking back to Buffalo's nine 2021 home games, seven saw the closing total drop from the opening line. The Under also went 6-3 overall, finished below 47.5 points seven times, and saw the Bills face seven offenses ranked 21st or worse in offensive EPA.
The Steelers are currently ranked 26th in 2022.
If you're leaning towards the Under for this Week 5 tilt, I would suggest grabbing this 47.5 look-ahead line — I think there's enough reason to believe it could finish (or possibly even start) a few ticks below this number.
