Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 4: Murray Makes His Mark at the Goal Line

Prop bet #1: Goal-line back take 2

I hit Latavius Murray for a touchdown at +320 last week, and with the Buffalo Bills goal-line back’s price dipping just a little to +290, there is no reason to get off this cash cow. 

First off, it’s the week’s highest-total game at 53.5 and points are going to be scored in Orchard Park. Getting the red zone back for this price on a home team that’s favored with a 53.5-point total is flat-out robbery.

On the season, Murray is tied for third in the league with four carries inside the five-yard line, where he has scored two times and also caught one pass. Meanwhile, lead back James Cook saw his first carry of the season inside the five last week that was stuffed. Through three games, Murray has eight total red-zone touches to Cook’s five.

Murray is ahead of Damien Harris on the pecking order, sees a lot of his snaps near the goal line, and will face a Miami Dolphins defense that have given up 71 points on the season — ranking in the bottom half of the league. The Dolphins are allowing TDs in the red zone at a 64% clip, which is also a Bottom-10 mark. 

Miami has allowed seven offensive TDs this year and five of them have come on the one- or two-yard line. We're playing this until it goes below +200.

I’m betting a full unit on it and another 0.2 units on his 2+ TDs prop at +2,200 over at bet365.

Latavius Murray prop: Anytime touchdown (+290 at BetMGM)  

Prop bet #2: Tank time

This one might seem cute, but Tank Bigsby is paying +400 to score in London this Sunday and he has been the only back on the Jacksonville Jaguars to get a carry inside the 10-yard line. He’s taken three of those carries and turned them into two scores to date.

Travis Etienne Jr. gets almost all of the work between the 10s, but when it gets crowded, it’s Tank time. This is a play I’d run to +300, which most books are offering as of Friday afternoon. Etienne also has zero carries inside the 10-yard line this year and had none in the red zone last week. 

Hand it off to Tank. Touchdown @Jaguars!

????: #HOUvsJAX on FOX
????: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/RcvUFgNDoC

— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023

It’s not the greatest matchup going up against the Atlanta Falcons, as Arthur Smith's squad has allowed just one rushing touchdown and owns a decent 44% red-zone TD%. However, the Falcons have also been flagged for three DPIs to begin the year... and Bigsby’s Week 3 TD was set up by a Calvin Ridley DPI in the endzone.  

Bigsby had just two carries on seven snaps last week but he saw his work early when the game was still close. I’m hoping his usage is more like Week 1 vs. the Colts, which was a positive/neutral game script where he saw seven carries, had two inside the five, and ultimately found paydirt.

It’s a full-unit play here and the handicap is heavily factoring in a short-yardage score. 

Tank Bigsby prop: Anytime touchdown (+400 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Running up that Hill

With Derek Carr listed as a DNP at practice on Thursday, it’s likely to be Jameis Winston starting at quarterback on Sunday when the New Orleans Saints face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Tampa Bay’s defense was manhandled vs. the Eagles in Week 3 and couldn’t get off the field, spending nearly 40 minutes defending. Philly ran 78 plays in that game and gained 6.1 yards per play. They also went 1-for-5 in the red zone and quite frankly, should have scored more. 

Making things worse for the Bucs is the fact that they currently have four defensive starters with questionable tags going into Friday. 

Winston looked awful and led his team to zero points in the second half. However, with a full week of prep, he should command the offense better in a good matchup, but I’m not entirely sure that Dennis Allen trusts him near the goal line. 

That’s where Taysom Hill comes in. He is always an intriguing TD guy to hit, but Week 4 provides an especially great spot.

The Saints are facing a challenge as they've lost their goal-line back in Jamaal Williams. Currently, they rely on Alvin Kamara, who has yet to take a snap, and Tony Jones, who, apart from his two touchdowns in Week 2, has made limited contributions.

Last year, Hill had 12 carries and three targets inside the 10, Kamara recorded just eight carries, and the now-retired Mark Ingram saw three. This season, Hill has recorded three carries inside the 10, with one of those even coming inside the five. 

We didn’t see how Allen will use Hill in the RZ with Winston under center as the Saints didn’t get inside the 20 in the second half last week. However, that could very well be suppressing some Hill anytime TD value heading into Sunday.

With a great matchup, the backup QB in, a winning record, and paying a good price, it’s time for the twice-a-season Hill TD shot in Week 4. Most books don’t have a market open for Hill’s TD but the +270 price at DraftKings is solid... although a better price might open once Carr is officially declared out.      

Taysom Hill prop: Anytime touchdown (+270 at DraftKings)