Super Bowl Odds Update: Books Were Bracing For Rodgers' Jump To Jets

The football world has been in the dark about Aaron Rodgers' career plans, which is the way he likes it apparently. But the future Hall of Fame quarterback shed light on his 2023 situation, announcing on the Pat McAfee Show that he will be joining the New York Jets this upcoming NFL season.

The four-time MVP was rumored, reported, rescinded, reported again, and now finally confirmed to be on his way to New York, which has watched its Super Bowl odds bounce around like Adam Schefter every time the phone rings.

While Wednesday's news is huge, it won't have too much of an impact on the Jets' futures, as books have been padding those NFL odds more than a giant foam cheesehead on a brisk Wisconsin winter day.

Latest New York Jets Super Bowl odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of March 15, 2023.

Latest New York Jets odds movement

New York’s Super Bowl odds in the NFL futures market are currently priced between +942 and +1,500 after opening as big as +3,000. That has the Jets on the same predictive plane as contenders like the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Chargers.

“Regarding the (Super Bowl odds), it's already down to 15/1 so it's fully baked in,” says Max Mayer, content writer for Caesars Sportsbooks, when measuring Rodgers’ impact on the Jets' futures. “I'd be surprised if it moves down any lower if it becomes official. But if strong Jets action continues to flow in, we'll have to adjust.”

Caesars Sportsbooks did come off those prices following Wednesday's announcement, but just a bit. They moved New York from +1,500 to +1,400 and dropped the AFC odds from +800 to +700 with the betting markets reacting to a trade that was pretty much 99% confirmed. 

Upon rumblings of Aaron Rodgers landing in New York, the Jets drew significant interest from Super Bowl bettors the past two weeks. According to Caesars, the Jets are fourth in both ticket count (7.7%) and handle (9.2%) among 32 NFL teams, with those Super Bowl percentages up from 6.4% of tickets and 7.7% of handle before the Rodgers rumors really started swirling.

The Jets are also among the front runners to win the AFC Championship, soaring up the board from +1,400 to as short as +645 at some sportsbooks. That makes New York the fourth overall favorite in the AFC behind the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati.

For sportsbooks posting divisional odds, the Jets are +180 to win the AFC East behind only the Bills at +130 and ahead of the Miami Dolphins (+375) and New England Patriots (+1,000).

There seemed to be a little suspense around Rodgers’ interest in playing as this saga dragged out. But once the franchise had reportedly received a “wish list” from Rodgers, which included two of his favorite targets in WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb — it was very clear where he was headed.

There’s no doubt Rodgers is an upgrade over the Jets’ current quarterback situation, which is now just Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco after Mike White signed with the rival Dolphins. Last year, New York’s passing game finished 29th in EPA per dropback (-0.081) and lugged a success of 40.7% with 15 touchdowns to 14 interceptions.

Rodgers is a Hall of Fame arm and just two years removed from an MVP season in 2021. However, the Packers’ passing game ranked out middle of the road last season and Rodgers finished 20th among qualified 31 QBs in EPA+ CPOE (Expect Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expectation), behind the likes of Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota. 

And, much like last year in Green Bay, the Jets' passing game is headlined by younger receivers like Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore and will be learning a different system under new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who served as Green Bay’s OC between 2019 and 2021. 

Rodgers isn’t much of a mentor and is infamous for expecting his new receivers to know all his hand signals and unique calls at the line of scrimmage. He posted a career-low QBR as a starter of 39.3 in 2022, which was his first season without stud WR Davante Adams since 2014.

Rodgers does get complemented by a solid New York defense, which kept the team competitive most weeks. New York ranked out No. 6 in EPA allowed per play and was very stingy against the pass, despite playing an average of 31:15 minutes — the fourth-highest workload in the NFL.

Rodgers’ potential move to the Big Apple has also found him higher on the 2023 MVP board, currently priced at +1,800 — the seventh overall choice of oddsmakers. 

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