Best NFL Sack Prop Picks for Week 4: Highsmith Takes Undermanned Texans O-Line to Task

Sack props are one of the most recent player prop markets to hit the board and there's plenty of betting value if you break down the NFL odds every week. 

When it comes to Week 4 odds, I'm betting on a Steelers outside linebacker (no, not that one) to wreck a banged-up Texans line while also fading Saints edge Carl Granderson against an elite left tackle.

Then we get into Sunday Night Football, where I'm backing one of the best defensive players in the league to come away with another huge performance during prime-time. Here are my favorite NFL picks and sack props for Week 4.

Latest Week 4 sack props

• Alex Highsmith Over 0.25 sacks 
• Carl Granderson to record a sack - No
• SNF: Chris Jones Over 0.75 sacks

Picks made on September 30 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Chiefs vs Texans sack prop: Alex Highsmith

While Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been outstanding as a rookie, he's also been sacked 11 times through three games. That's not a good sign when you consider that Houston hasn't played any top pass-rush units yet.

Now Stroud & Co. are set to take on a ferocious Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks second in the league in pressure rate this week. 

T.J. Watt has been a monster for Pittsburgh once again but don't sleep on fellow pass rusher Alex Highsmith. Highsmith had a career-high 14.5 sacks last year, and while he has just a single sack so far this season, he boasts a pass rush grade of 81.2 according to Pro Football Focus. That number is all the more impressive when you consider that he was shut down by 49ers All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams in Week 1.

Highsmith will face a much easier opponent on Sunday, as Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil and his backup Josh Jones have both been ruled out due to injuries. With other backup tackles like Tytus Howard and Charlie Heck on the IR, the Texans will be forced to play Austin Deculus at LT. The 2022 sixth-rounder was waived by the Texans in August before being signed to the practice squad and has yet to log a single snap on offense as a pro.

Expect Highsmith to wreak havoc in Houston and bet on him to record a sack. 

Alex Highsmith: Over 0.25 sacks (-105 at DraftKings)

Buccaneers vs Saints sack prop: Carl Granderson

Carl Granderson is coming off a solid season with the New Orleans Saints, but even in that breakout campaign, he sported a modest 5.5 sacks with a pass rush grade of just 65.1 through 16 games.

While Granderson wrecked Tennessee and Carolina's pathetic offensive lines in Weeks 1 and 2 by racking up a total of 11 pressures, he regressed last week with just a single pressure and zero sacks against the Packers. Granderson now faces a really tough matchup this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and left tackle Tristan Wirfs.

Tampa Bay has allowed just three sacks this year and Wirfs hasn't given up any of them. Wirfs boasted the highest pass-blocking grade (90.5) among all right tackles last year and he hasn't missed a beat since moving over to the left side, posting a grade of 83.3 this season.

Back Wirfs and this stout Bucs O-line to keep Granderson off the sack sheet. 

Carl Granderson: To record a sack - No (-120 at bet365)

Sunday Night football sack prop: Chris Jones

When the schedule makers penciled in the Kansas City Chiefs facing the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football, it was expected to be a marquee matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. However, with Rodgers done for the year, the Jets are 9-point dogs with Zach Wilson back under center.

That said, a big spread should mean a negative game script for the Jets, resulting in more dropbacks for Wilson and more sack opportunities for this Chiefs defense.

The best defensive player on the Chiefs is Chris Jones, who re-joined the team in Week 2 after beginning the year by holding out for a bigger contract. The superstar defensive tackle logged 1.5 sacks in his season debut in Week 2 and picked up a sack against the Bears last week as well, despite playing just 16 snaps in the blowout victory. Jones owns a pass rush grade of 91 this year which is almost as high as last season's 92.2 grade when he racked up 15.5 sacks. 

Jones was limited in practice due to a groin injury this week but there's been no indication that it's serious and he has an excellent matchup against a weak Jets interior offensive line. The Jets rank 25th in the NFL in QB sack percentage (9.57%) and center Connor McGovern has been a disaster with a pass-blocking grade of just 30.8. 

Expect Jones' sack streak to continue and bet Over 0.75 on his sacks here. 

Chris Jones: Over 0.75 sacks (-125 at DraftKings)

How are sack props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will typically count as the player recording a sack. 

Best strategies to bet sack props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

Other defensive player betting props

tSportsbooks are starting to put out other props for defensive players. That includes markets involving tackles (both solo tackles and combined tackles) as well as interceptions. 

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