Raiders vs Rams TNF Prop Bets: Carr Heats Up in Inglewood

The Las Vegas Raiders look to salvage their season as they aim for their fourth-straight win when they travel to SoFi Stadium to take on the depleted and flag-waving Los Angeles Rams.

With the uncertainties on the Rams’ side under center, prop bettors don’t have a full array of early markets, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had.

Here are my NFL player prop bets for Thursday Night Football’s battle between the Raiders and Rams.

Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full TNF betting preview before kickoff. 

Raiders vs Rams props

• Carr Over 1.5 passing TDs
• Akers Over 44.5 rushing yards
• Adams anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Raiders vs Rams TNF props

Carr from heaven

The Rams have been one of the most generous pass defenses over the last three weeks. They’re one of three teams allowing over 300 yards through the air per game and giving up 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over that stretch, including games vs. Seattle, Kansas City, and New Orleans.

Geno Smith threw for a season-high 367 yards vs. the Rams last week and added three passing touchdowns. Hell, Andy Dalton had 260 yards and three scores against this defense three weeks ago. It’s a great matchup for Derek Carr, whose Over 1.5 TD market is very reasonably priced at -115. 

Carr has tossed multiple TDs in five straight, and that stretch includes three defenses in the top half of the league in DVOA pass defense (DEN, IND, and LAC). 

Most TD passes thrown 20+ yards downfield per @sportradar:#Raiders Derek Carr 9
Jalen Hurts 9
Geno Smith 9

(Carr's career high is 10 TD passes of 20+ air yards down in 2015 and 2020)

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) December 7, 2022

Josh Jacobs is still dealing with a quad/calf injury, and the short week won’t help the heavily-used running back return to full health, which could lead to more passing from Josh McDaniels. Even with the heavy commitment to the run, Carr has still managed to rack up passing TDs, so this bet still feels safe even if Jacobs gets his 25-plus touches.

With a lost season, an impotent offense, and a defense that is banged up and possibly missing Aaron Donald for a second straight week, I’m liking Carr to continue to torch this defense through the air and have his 10th multiple TD game across 13 starts.

Derek Carr Prop: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115)

Perfect Akers

Trusting the Los Angeles passing game is tough, considering bettors aren’t sure which awful quarterback will be under center for the Rams on Thursday night. With that said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sean McVay stay committed to the run for a second straight week (51% rush percentage in Week 13) vs. this Vegas rush defense. 

The Raiders own the 21st DVOA rush defense and sit 20th in success rate against the run. They aren’t the worst run defense in football, but they are far from good. 

That leads me to Cam Akers. He saw 72% of the team’s snaps last week and out-carried Kyren Williams 17 to three. Akers turned those 17 carries into 60 yards and two short-yardage scores vs. the Seahawks, and I think he'll get another similar go Thursday.

Asked Sean McVay about examples of the growth he brought up postgame yesterday, mentioned being able to get DB Decobie Durant and S Russ Yeast involved, plus the play of RB Cam Akers and WR Tutu Atwell as bright spots.

— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) December 5, 2022

McVay featured Williams two weeks ago when he carried 11 times for just 35 yards vs. the Chiefs’ league-average rush defense, which might be the main reason the coach leaned on Akers in Week 13. Akers has gained 158 yards on 39 carries over the last three games (4.05 yards per carry), and with the passing game looking weak going forward, the run game should get plenty of work within a neutral game script. 

That potential game script as a 6-point dog is priced into Akers’ rushing total that sits at 44.5 yards, which would be higher if the Rams were favored thanks to his double-digit carry potential. 

As it stands, this is still a modest number that Akers can possibly top before the fourth quarter, when the Rams might be forced to pass more. 

The Raiders could also be without some key defensive players Thursday night as starting defensive tackle Andrew Billings and linebacker Jayon Brown haven’t practiced this week, 

THE BLITZ has Akers projected for 56.35 rushing yards, and he would only need 11 carries to hit the Over at 4.05 yards per carry.   

Cam Akers Prop: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-114)

Shopping around

Bettors who take a little time to shop around can get a good price on a Davante Adams touchdown at bet365. The book is offering -110 odds with other books like PointsBet and BetMGM, at -200 and -170, respectively.

That difference in pricing equates to a 14% difference in applied probability, which is very significant. That’s the same as +800 and +300 in terms of probability difference. Shopping around is a great tool for bettors and can be applied to TNF, with the most-targeted receiver in football at an insane 32.8% target share.

The Rams are one of 10 teams in football that are allowing an average of 1.00 or more touchdowns to opposing receivers. Adams is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12 through as many games.

He’s scored in eight of his 12 contests this year, and considering the Rams have allowed a receiving TD to the opposing pass-catcher who leads his team in receiving yards in five of the last six games, I’m putting a better than 50/50 chance that Adams finds the end zone on Thursday.

Davante Adams has 4 games this season with 100 Rec yards and 2 Rec TD

No one else in the NFL has more than 2 pic.twitter.com/tn4QTZlPqC

— NFL on CBS ???? (@NFLonCBS) December 4, 2022

I doubt I’d play this much further than -125, but with insane target and air-yard shares coupled with a great matchup vs. a weak secondary, -110 for an Adams TD is just as good, if not better, than playing his Over/Under yardage total. 

Davante Adams Prop: Anytime touchdown (-110)

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