Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 4: Keenan Allen Has Huge Game with Williams' Absence

300+ passing yards

Sometimes the best value lies in the least confident names, and that theory holds true in Week 4 with the passing total for Russell Wilson odds. 

The Denver Broncos quarterback has hit the 300-yard plateau in two straight games and is paying +390 to get there again on Sunday vs. a Chicago Bears defense that is without two starters in the secondary and a depth corner. 

This is also a Chicago defense that allowed Jordon Love to toss three scores in Week 1, Baker Mayfield to throw for 300+ yards in Week 2, and Patrick Mahomes to average 8.24 yards per pass last week in a blowout. Only Denver allows more yards per pass attempt in the league after three weeks.

That segues nicely as this Denver defense can’t stop the ball and is dealing with injuries of its own. The Miami game skewed the Broncos’ defensive numbers, but the Commanders had nearly 400 yards of offense vs. them in Week 2 and they lost to the Raiders at home in the opener. 

Denver enters Week 4 without its best linebacker in Josey Jewell, two more key members are out, and starting safety Justin Simmons is questionable. Even this Chicago offense should be able to put up some points (hello Over 46) making Wilson and the Denver offense stay active for four quarters.

Wilson will have Jerry Jeudy again this week who is coming off an 80-yard seven-target game vs. Miami. Courland Sutton is a threat, Denver has two great pass-catching RBs in Javonte WIlliams and Samaje Perine, and if Marvin Mims can get some more snaps, this passing game could explode Sunday. Coming off a 50-point loss and hungry is also a nice angle here. It’s a full-unit play. 

Russell Wilson prop: 300+ passing yards (+390 at bet365) 

10+ receptions

The Los Angeles Chargers have a plus matchup vs. the Raiders today and without Mike Williams and Austin Ekler, Keenan Allen is going to continue to soak up a heavy dose of targets. His reception total is at 7.5 but a milestone bump to double digits is what I’m playing at +320. 

Allen had a 20-target, 18-catch day last week and that was with Williams playing well into the third quarter. He now gets to face a defense that allows completions at a 75% rate.

Justin Herbert might not have to worry about disruptor Maxx Crosby who is questionable with a knee injury. It’s a defensive line that is already missing Chandler Jones and his backup and starting left corner Nate Hobbs is questionable with a mid-week injury which is never good. 

Only four other players have a higher target share than Allen who leads the league in catches heading into the weekend. He has an elite matchup, increased opportunities thanks to injuries, and has the best form of any receiver entering Week 4. The indoor environment is just the icing on the cake.  

When he’s healthy, he is the best possession receiver in football. 

Keenan Allen prop: 10+ receptions (+320 at bet365)

125+ rushing and receiving yards

Bijan Robinson’s quiet game vs. a very good Detroit defense might be giving bettors some better value for his Overs in Week 4.

The rookie played 52 snaps to Tyler Allgeier’s 20 last week and has outsnapped the sophomore 109 to 64 over the last two weeks. Robinson is one week removed from a 19-carry five-target game where he totaled 162 yards from scrimmage vs. a healthy Green Bay defense. 

Now the Atlanta Falcons travel across the Atlantic to face the Jacksonville Jaguars who just gave up 37 points and 6.5 yards per play to the Texans in Week 3. Jacksonville linebacker Devin Lloyd is out and Atlanta is very one-dimensional in neutral game scripts. Even when Demond Ridder does pass, 20% of them are going Robinson’s way. A lot is going to Robinson in Week 4. 

The rookie RB is game-script-proof and could be putting on a show Sunday morning. His floor in this game is 16 looks and the ceiling is 25+. He also has big-play ability on the ground and in the passing game and will be a hard target for the Jags to game plan against. Allgeier had just 12 yards on seven carries last week and has ceded the No. 1 role.

I’m taking his 125+ total yards for +300 for a unit and spending another quarter unit on his 150+ at +725. 

Bijan Robinson prop: 125+ rushing and receiving yards (+300 at bet365)