The No. 1 Connecticut Huskies entered the March Madness odds as the favorites to win it all for a handful of reasons, but that praise began with the Huskies’ offense, not their defense. That should change, even as UConn enters the Sweet Sixteen portion of the March Madness bracket and faces a defensive-driven foe.
The No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs are known solely for their defense. In other words, their offense is a fault at this stage in the season, and that will be quite clear tonight.
Our free March Madness picks and predictions will doubt the Aztecs as we preview San Diego State vs UConn on Thursday, March 28.
San Diego State vs UConn best odds
San Diego State vs UConn picks and predictions
The best advanced metrics rank UConn’s defense at No. 8 in the country while some are as generous as No. 6 and even that's underselling the Huskies.
UConn has won nine straight games since getting torched at Creighton in mid-February. It has gone 8-1 against the spread in that stretch, and the Huskies' defense has been the piece drastically exceeding bookmakers’ expectations, holding eight of those opponents below their team totals by an average of 6.1 points.
Since Feb. 23, UConn has given up 88.8 points per 100 possessions, the No. 4 adjusted defense in the country, per barttorvik.com. Before then, the Huskies allowed 95.2 points per 100 possessions, ranked No. 23 in the country.
That kind of jump as the season has hit its most crucial stretch parallels what won UConn the national championship a year ago, going 6-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament and holding all six opponents below their team totals, doing so by an average of 8.25 points.
The Huskies have a higher defensive level they can get to. It won them the 2023 title, and they have found that strength again.
If UConn’s defense had looked like this all season, it would be just a shade behind Iowa State and Houston as the No. 3 defense in the country in these advanced numbers. In that case, national championship odds would be even lower than they are (+201 at Pinnacle), and this Sweet Sixteen matchup would look even more lopsided.
The San Diego State Aztecs offense is lackluster, at least in comparison to what a Sweet Sixteen team should boast. They shot terribly from deep, just 30.4% from beyond the arc in Mountain West play. San Diego State relies on offensive rebounds to put up enough points.
UConn ranked No. 3 in Big East play in giving up offensive boards. Cutting off that supply will be just another feature of this bettered Huskies defense, and it will cost the Aztecs any hopes of working the scoreboard.
My best bet: San Diego State team total Under 62.5 (-112 at Pinnacle)
San Diego State vs UConn same-game parlay
San Diego State team total Under 62.5
UConn -11
Jaedon LeDee Under 20.5 points
The closest an opponent came to covering the spread against UConn in last year’s tournament was seven points, Miami still losing by 13 in the Final Four. To some degree, that run of dominance was not properly appreciated.
The Huskies faced a surging team in the second round last weekend, and they proceeded to simply stymie Northwestern’s elite guards, holding Boo Buie and Ryan Langborg to 27 combined points on 7-of-22 shooting.
San Diego State does not have ball handlers that adept, no offense to Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell. Without elite guard play from the Aztecs, Connecticut’s defense should cause a bevy of problems.
Preventing easy entry passes and hounding his preferred offensive rebounds will cost San Diego State forward Jaedon LeDee hopes for a seventh straight game of more than 20 points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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San Diego State vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego State’s plodding pace and defensive emphasis raise its floor, but they also shorten any variance in games, making it more difficult to cover the spread. Unsurprisingly, the Aztecs have gone just 2-6 ATS in the season’s homestretch.
- This spread opened with UConn favored by 9.5, moving to -10.5 on Monday and -11 on Tuesday morning, a nod that bettors are beginning to recognize how well the Huskies’ defense is playing.
- The total opened at 135.5 and hardly moved despite six of Connecticut’s last seven games going Under their totals.
San Diego State vs UConn betting trend to know
The Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit favorites. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs. UConn.
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San Diego State vs UConn game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:39 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS | truTV |
San Diego State vs UConn key injuries
