The Purdue Boilermakers face the UConn Huskies for the 2024 National Championship tonight. These have been the two best teams in the country all season and there are plenty of intriguing narratives to follow. The Huskies are aiming to become the first repeat champions since 2007 while Purdue is looking to win the first title in school history just a year after getting shocked in the first round as a No. 1 seed.
I look at the March Madness odds for this matchup and bring you my three favorite Purdue vs. UConn picks and predictions on Monday, April 8.
Purdue vs UConn Spread and O/U
The lookahead line for this theoretical matchup had the Huskies installed as 5.5-point favorites prior to the Final Four. After an impressive second half performance from UConn against Alabama, this line officially opened at -6.5. Early money has come in on the Huskies with BetMGM reporting 64% of tickets and 73% of money on the defending champs. That has shifted the line as high as -7.5 at some books with others checking in at -7.
The lookahead O/U was at 148.5 before reopening at 146.5. Interestingly enough, 62% of the bets and 51% of the handle at BetMGM have been on the Over, but the total has still ticked down to 145. Although both teams have highly efficient offenses they also defend well and prefer a sluggish tempo so the O/U slimming shouldn't be too surprising.
Purdue vs UConn picks
Pick 1: UConn winning margin 1-5 (+400 at bet365) and UConn winning margin 6-10 (+350 at bet365)
This elite Huskies defense will be the toughest matchup star center Zach Edey has faced all season, and Purdue's guards will struggle against the length and physicality of UConn's backcourt.
On the other side of the floor, Purdue does a poor job of defending off-ball screens and cutters and UConn runs those plays at a high frequency and is in the Top 10 in efficiency, per ShotQualityBets.
For those reasons, UConn should get the victory but this is a lot of points to spot Purdue. Keep in mind that analytics are predicting a much closer contest with KenPom projecting a 75-72 victory for UConn and Bart Torvik projecting a 2-point win.
This is a formidable Boilermakers squad that has excelled against top competition this season going 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS against ranked opponents. They should at least keep things relatively close even if they can’t win outright and that gives plenty of betting value to the winning margin props.
I’m putting a unit on the Huskies to win by 1-5 points (+400 at bet365) and another unit on them to win by 6-10 points (+350). So long as the favorites win but don’t end up blowing out Purdue by more than 10 points, you’ll walk away with money.
Pick 2: Zach Edey Over 23.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
The Boilermakers are led by center Edey, who is the first back-to-back National Player of the year in more than 40 years. While Edey will have a tough matchup against Donovan Clingan, I still like him to go Over his points total here.
Edey has scored 25+ points in 10 of his last 12 games and is averaging a whopping 28.5 ppg during that span. The Purdue big man gets sent to the line for a whopping 11.2 free throw attempts per game and UConn was second-last in the Big East in opponent free throw rate during conference play.
Edey has played 117 minutes over the last three games and he'll log plenty of minutes and see a sky-high usage rate in a game of this magnitude. Especially with UConn's defenders likely locking down Purdue's perimeter options. Edey might not be as efficient as he usually is, but he should take enough shots to go Over his points tonight.
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Pick 3: Donovan Clingan Over 7.5 rebounds (-122 at FanDuel)
While Edey is the best player in college, Clingan is projected as the top college big man in the upcoming NBA draft. At 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, Clingan is an elite defender with the rare size and mobility to compete with the 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey.
Clingan averages 7.4 rebounds in just 22.3 minutes per game which converts to an impressive 13.4 rebounds per 40 minutes. Clingan often gets less playing time in blowout wins and games against opponents who roll with small-ball lineups. However, with Edey rarely coming off the floor over the last few rounds expect to see plenty of Clingan tonight. The UConn big has grabbed 8+ boards in five of his last six games and he should be busy on the glass here.
