With a win tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder advance out of the first round for the first time in eight years and cap their first series sweep in more than a decade. The New Orleans Pelicans hope to have something to say about that, but the 3-0 series deficit looms large for a team that has yet to exceed 92 points this round.
As we dig into Thunder vs. Pelicans predictions, doubting the Pelicans offense is central to our free NBA picks for Monday, April 29.
Thunder vs Pelicans predictions
My best bet
Pelicans team total Under 101.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The quickest takeaway from looking at three games of box scores is that the New Orleans Pelicans are shooting badly. The Pelicans have not hit more than 30% of their 3-pointers in any game, topping out at 11-of-39 in Game 1.
That is a problem exacerbated by Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum preferring to play in the midrange. When your two best offensive weapons, the two with the ball in their hands most often, the two you are designed to depend on in the playoffs have combined to go 7-of-29 from beyond the arc in three games, your offense is never going to excel.
But look beyond that and there is a bigger problem for New Orleans.
The Pelicans have averaged 17 turnovers per game in this series, lowlighted by giving up 20 turnovers in Game 3. For context, they averaged 12.4 turnovers per game in the final six weeks of the regular season, and they gave up 12 and 15 in the two Play-In games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have an excellent defense. Everyone in the West should expect misery facing it. But it is particularly brutal for New Orleans, given it lacks a true point guard.
McCollum has led the Pelicans in assists in each game, dishing out 17 across three games. But he is best as a shooting guard. New Orleans’s closest thing to a true point guard is defensive pest Jose Alvarado. There is no one to initiate the offense, and without that, the Pelicans gift the ball to the Thunder.
More than the bad shooting — another symptom of not having a point guard creating open shots — the rash of turnovers is why New Orleans has been blown out in two of these three games and why it has averaged 89.7 points. And with no point guard around to plug in, none of that should change.
Thunder vs Pelicans same-game parlay (SGP)
Pelicans team total Under 101.5
Josh Giddey 5+ assists
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points
As Jon Metler points out, the Pelicans are leaving Josh Giddey open on the perimeter — something most teams will do in these playoffs — and that often puts the ball in Josh Giddey’s hands against a rotating defense. On Saturday, he turned those chances into six assists.
The meaningful part of that stat is that Giddey was willing to make the right play. If he carries that mindset into tonight, he should have just as many moments to do so. Taking his assists prop to an alternate line of 5+ from its Over/Under of 3.5 raises this same-game parlay’s payout by 54.5%, far more than one additional assist should.
Adding Chet Holmgren to this parlay may as well be doubling down on Giddey’s assists. Giddey gets the ball out of pick-and-rolls, often delivered by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while New Orleans focuses on Jalen Williams. That often leaves Lu Dort and Holmgren available for easy looks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Pelicans odds
Thunder vs Pelicans live odds
Get the latest Thunder vs Pelicans NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Thunder vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4 | New Orleans +4
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -168 | New Orleans +151
- Over/Under: Over 204.5 | Under 204.5
Thunder vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- After their Game 3 rout, the Thunder opened as 4.5-point favorites to close out this series in a sweep, a number that spent Monday morning at -5 before ticking back down to -4.5 during the lunch hour.
- That lack of line movement stands in contrast to the bet share, with BetMGM reporting 85% of bets and 78% of money landing on OKC as of Monday morning.
- Tonight’s total opened at 205 and moved to 206 earnestly on Sunday before buying back to 204.5 on Sunday evening. Then, just to throw any total analysis into confusion, it jumped to 207 on Monday morning.
Thunder vs Pelicans trend
Oklahoma City has won its last eight games outright, going 6-2 against the spread in the stretch. That includes five wins to end the regular season when the Thunder needed to win each and every game to earn the No. 1 seed. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.
Thunder vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Thunder vs Pelicans latest injuries
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