The Minnesota Timberwolves held a 2-0 lead over the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference semifinals before they even played a home game. They were the odds-on favorites to win the West in NBA odds, -115 lower odds than any team had enjoyed in the Western Conference all season.
They then lost twice at home, a Game 3 blowout followed by a miscue-laden Game 4 deflation. Nearly 20,000 Timberwolves fans had shown up at Target Center twice in one weekend and had little to cheer for. I was one of them, with nine friends in tow each night.
Minnesota’s odds of winning the West fell to +300. A Game 5 loss in Denver knocked them down to +360, just to win this series.
But do not forget where the Timberwolves are coming from. To start the season, they were +2,800 to win the West. And even then, we were somewhat optimistic.
This past week’s frustrations aside, there are a few driving lessons to hold onto as a Minnesota season-ticket holder expected to provide unbiased betting analysis and NBA picks throughout the playoffs.
Primarily, remember to enjoy being a fan.
It’s supposed to be fun
I missed the first Minnesota Timberwolves home game of the season, two friends and their wives took my tickets while I covered a college football game. They were treated to a 106-90 Minnesota victory against the Jimmy Butler-less Heat.
More than feeling happy for my friends that they enjoyed a win sparked by Naz Reid’s 25 points, I regretted I could not spend that Saturday night with the friends I have made next to my season seats. I had not seen them since the Timberwolves exited the playoffs last April.
They are not people who would have cared or known that Minnesota was +2,800 to win the West, a number I bet the next day from an Illinois rest stop. They would have focused on the Denver Nuggets being the best team in the conference and on the constant worry about Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. They openly doubted the Phoenix Suns all season long, something I did not, given I also bet them that day to win the West at +385.
Because the main thing has to remain the main thing, I'm always late finishing up my NBA futures.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 29, 2023
Pros and cons to the fact.
Anyway, mostly for my own future reference ... pic.twitter.com/hRT91zu7GQ
Those three fans — a 29-year-old retail worker next to a veterinarian and her 20-year-old son — have nothing in common with me aside from our front-row, second-level seats at Target Center. But we spend 30 or 35 nights together each year. That is more time than I spend with any other friends.
Seven years of season tickets amplify that kind of time. As recently as five years ago, the Wolves won just 19 games. That creates a bond, one forged while sitting through repeated botched second halves, humiliating blowouts, and Andrew Wiggins missed free throws. These are friendships built in quiet moments, ones waiting on some theoretical idea of future competitiveness.
and these cross-sections of fans ... you have no idea how much section 238 at Target Center / the end of the bar at the best bar in the city relates. You have no idea.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 20, 2023
It's why we so love basketball season. It's more than Ant.
And it's why I'm confused by title-or-bust CFB fans
It’s not the basketball, the beautiful yet brutal basketball that so delights Timberwolves fans. It’s not the suffocating defense that should give voice to the Target Center crowd once more in Thursday’s Game 6 with the season on the line. It’s that realized competitiveness, finally seen while we sit next to those who waited for it with us.
To us, even an implied 3.4% chance at reaching the NBA Finals sparked optimism.
Find value when and where you can
That optimism grew into genuine expectation when Jamal Murray’s shin splints first flared up in mid-February. My initial bet on the Timberwolves to win the West was made mostly out of hope, not prudent gambling. Knowing the difference is key when it comes to your favorite team. Some optimistic wagers are acceptable, but keep them small and few.
When the most clutch player on the defending champions missed three weeks to try to heal those shin splints and the accompanying calf worries, the Timberwolves' NBA Title odds were available at +2,500. That bet was made out of understood value, all biases aside.
If Murray is diminished, Denver is nowhere near the power we worry about. The first two games of this Western Conference semifinal proved that once again.
An implied 3.8% chance at winning the NBA Finals sparked value.
Knowing and recognizing the difference between a biased bet and a chance at genuine value is key to being a passionate fan with an open sportsbook account.
Pay attention to small changes or trends
You study the players on the end of the bench more than the oddsmakers do. You know exactly what opposing player foils your usual defense most easily. You notice a change in a role player’s shot mechanics before the sample size catches up with the improvement or collapse.
These are the topics you debate at the bar after the game, the nuances you listen to beat writers ponder in podcasts the next day. These intricacies further your irrational optimism or pessimism.
If you separate them from optimism or pessimism, they can become valuable pieces of handicapping. Noticing that change in a jump shot before the stats back it up, for example, could lead to a week or two of a certain prop bet being profitable.
Popular NBA futures odds
Enjoy your favorite team on multiple levels
Trash-talk your coworkers as you see fit. Take offense when seemingly every other team is given the grace to figure out a new roster while yours is lampooned. Focus on the party that comes from having 10 tickets for every postseason game and friends who will take advantage of your 50% discount on all concessions and merchandise as a season ticket holder.
Those are all key pieces of being a fan. Along with getting to know those strangers sitting next to you, these are the ways being a fan remains fun, even amid two straight losses at home when so many of the greatest dreams could have been neared.
And this is supposed to be fun.
Notice the first signs of trends or changes in the rotation. Pay attention when the greatest thorns in your side around the league show up on injury reports. Closely following your favorite team is often the only time you are genuinely better informed than the oddsmakers.
Being a fan can also be profitable.
For the first time in 20 years, we Timberwolves fans have needed to strike that balance.
And given how rare chances like this come along, focusing on the fun is the best value.
