Best NBA Player Props Today: Value With Gafford as a Playmaker

Prop bet #1: Comfortably uncomfortable

We played Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 points on Monday, and we are going right back to another terrifying bet with an Under 27.5 points for Donovan Mitchell on Tuesday. Welcome to the NBA Playoffs, where some of your best edges come on an Under bet for a superstar player, and these bets are very uncomfortable to place.

Mitchell was trading with a total of 25.5 points when his series against the Orlando Magic began, but following his last three games where he scored 28, 50, and 39 points, this total is now two points higher at 27.5, and on top of that, the opponent has changed.

The Magic are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but so are the Boston Celtics, and the Celtics bring much different matchups to the table than the Magic. The Magic weren't showing a lot of help defense on Mitchell and were more allowing their positional size to contest him one-on-one at the rim on his drives. The goal was to suffocate the shooters on the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the size really didn't bother Mitchell as he was able to use his speed, footwork, and ability to finish at the rim to still score a ton of points in the final three games against the Magic.

This is where I think the Celtics pose a much different problem for Mitchell because, on top of having multiple solid individual defenders, these matchups are much different. Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown are all smaller and more agile than what the Magic were showing Mitchell. They can match the speed of Mitchell on the perimeter, which is something he had an edge on against several players on the Magic defenders who were relying more on their size.

Mitchell is also suffering from a knee injury that he was able to power through in Game 7 on Sunday. Fighting through injury in a Game 7 in your home building is much easier than fighting through injury in a Game 1 on the road in a spot where you are an 11.5-point underdog.

Mitchell is projected to score 25.4 points on Tuesday against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Under 27.5 points at -159, but it is available at bet365 at +100.

Donovan Mitchell prop: Under 27.5 points (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Mobley creates

Evan Mobley didn't have much of an impact on offense in the series against the Magic, but it also just wasn't a good matchup for him. Mobley's advantage is that he is very mobile for his size, but against the Magic, that doesn't help because all of their players are very similar to Mobley, and their positional size neutralized his offensive game.

As we switch to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, Mobley should find himself much more involved in the offensive game plan against the Celtics because the Cavaliers will want to exploit his size against a smaller Celtics roster, which is also missing Kristaps Porzingis.

You should see several actions where the Cavaliers dump the ball into Mobley in the post and work off of his post-ups against a smaller Celtics guard. This should lead to more potential assist opportunities for Mobley, which weren't there for him in the last series. Why would you run a post-up for Mobley against the Magic when he is being guarded by Paolo Banchero or Jonathan Isaac, who are just as big and fast as Mobley?

With Porzingis out, I do think we'll see a scenario where Mobley's minutes are very secure. The Celtics will be playing small, with Al Horford also hovering more on the perimeter. Mobley gives them a rim protector who is also capable of moving his feet with several of the Celtics perimeter players. If the Cavaliers run a smaller lineup just like the Celtics with Mobley at the 5, this will also create opportunities for Mobley to grab a rebound on defense and push the ball in transition with his dribble, creating potential assists.

Mobley is projected to have 2.8 assists on Tuesday against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -106, but it is available at Pinnacle at +130.

Evan Mobley prop: Over 2.5 assists (+130 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #3: All it takes is one

Anytime you play an Over 0.5 assists on a player, you kind of have to laugh because you're waiting the whole game for just one pass. Come on, Daniel Gafford, mix in one good pass for us on Tuesday night!

A couple of things here with Gafford; for starters, I think his minutes are very secure and could even be elevated. Maxi Kleber being out for several weeks is a bit of an underrated injury for the Dallas Mavericks, and I don't think the proper adjustment was made to Gafford's assists prop to account for it.

With Jason Kidd, there was always a chance that Gafford could be slightly faded for Dereck Lively or Maxi Kleber, and sometimes he would play Kleber at the 4 alongside them, while other times he would only play one of the three bigs. With Kleber out, these minutes now belong to Gafford and Lively, who should split time, and that's where our edge grows.

In order to establish an edge on this number, we need around 19 minutes from Gafford. His average in the series against the Los Angeles Clippers was 18 minutes, but in the final four games of the series, it was 21.5 minutes. With Kleber out, I find it hard to believe we aren't looking at 20+ minutes for Gafford on Tuesday, and the matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder also makes me feel like he will see elevated minutes because Gafford can use his power and strength around the rim against the smaller build of Chet Holmgren.

The nice part about Gafford is that when he sets a screen for Luka Doncic and the Thunder blitz Doncic and Doncic finds Gafford, Gafford doesn't have a mid-range jumper he can stop and pop. Gafford is looking to then make another pass, and this is how Lively and Gafford accumulate a lot of their assists. The more minutes Gafford plays, the more likely we are to run in this scenario, and one potential assist converting for us.

Gafford is projected to have 1.2 dimes on Tuesday against the Thunder, which allows us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -222, but it is available at Caesars at -154.

Daniel Gafford prop: Over 0.5 assists (-154 at Caesars)