We have two-for-Tuesday with a pair of Game 5 matchups, and a perfect NBA parlay pick to sweat this evening's crucial showdowns.
The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers are knotted up as the series swings back to basketball’s Mecca (8 p.m. ET), while the Minnesota Timberwolves try to find their footing as they climb the mountain to take on the Denver Nuggets (10:30 p.m. ET).
This pairing of matchups is perfect for parlay betting, and I comb through the NBA odds on both games for my best NBA picks and predictions for May 14.
NBA playoffs parlay picks May 14
- Precious Achiuwa Over 6.5 points
- Jamal Murray 6+ assists
- Aaron Gordon Over 13.5 points
(+458 FanDuel)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Tuesday
NBA parlay pick
Precious Achiuwa Over 6.5 points
Jamal Murray 6+ assists
Aaron Gordon Over 13.5 points
With OG Anunoby out of action for Game 5, Precious Achiuwa is in line to pick up extra minutes for the Knicks once again. He’s gone for eight, five, and eight the past three games and plays his best basketball at MSG, averaging almost two points more at home than on the road. Player projections are all north of eight points, with a ceiling of 13, while my number comes out to just shy of nine points in Game 5.
Jamal Murray has been playing through the pain the past couple of games but is still logging significant minutes as the Nuggets battle back. He dished out eight assists in 39 minutes in Game 4, and his assist prop for Game sits at 5.5 O/U. Not only do all player models call for six or more dimes tonight, but Murray is averaging 8.8 potential assists for the series for an offense finding its form and returning home for Game 5. He touches the ball every trip down the floor, so the potential for plenty of helpers is very high.
There’s usually value on the Under with a player coming off a career-resume game, like Aaron Gordon’s 27 points in Game 4. However, it sounds like the Timberwolves will live with Gordon taking and making shots rather than have Denver’s stars smoke them. Gordon has the size and athleticism to get over the T-Wolves' towering interior defense, and player projections for Game 5 sit between 13.2 and 15.2 points, with the bulk on the other side of this total.
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Today's NBA same-game parlay picks
Our betting experts have searched through today's NBA odds to find your best SGP bets for both games on Tuesday's playoff slate:
Pacers vs Knicks same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Nesmith Over 9.5 points
Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 threes
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 assists
While two 3-pointers would go a long way in helping us reach Over 9.5 points, I added it more because of the third leg.
Tyrese Haliburton sets Nesmith up for a lot of his 3-pointers, so if he can knock down some threes, there's a good chance it will directly affect Haliburton's ability to get Over 8.5 assists.
Not only will Nesmith knocking down some 3-pointers help with Haliburton's assists prop, but it will obviously help with Nesmith's points prop. These three bets are extremely correlated because of how the Pacers' offense flows.
Read Jon Metler's full Pacers vs. Knicks predictions.
Wolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made 3s
Under 205.5
Karl-Anthony Towns shot poorly in the Game 4 loss, just 5 of 18 from the field and 1-for-4 from deep. But Minnesota knows it needs him to keep shooting to draw some defensive pressure off Edwards. That works best when Towns is spaced around the arc, where he is one of the best shooters in the league and can leave room for Edwards to work in the lane.
Tonight of all nights, Towns should have motivation to play the game the Timberwolves design for him. The stakes are too high, and after his more contested shots were not falling on Sunday, doubling down on that would look particularly bad for the longest-tenured Wolf.
Combining two Over points props with a game Under raises the payout of this same-game parlay. And of Denver’s five home games this postseason, all five cashed the Under. The easiest reason to think points should regress tonight is that Aaron Gordon should not go 11 of 12 from the field again.
Read Douglas Farmr's full Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
