There are a pair of crucial Game 3 matchups in the NBA playoffs on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers hosting the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder with both series tied up at one game apiece.
Both of today's hosts pulled off upsets in Game 2 and while I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from the Thunder today, I think books are a bit too bullish on Boston's defense.
I tie those betting angles together and add a player prop as I build a 3-leg parlay in my NBA picks for May 11.
NBA playoffs parlay picks May 11
- Thunder ML
- Holmgren Over 15.5 points
- Cavs TT Over 101.5
(+584 at DraftKings)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Saturday
NBA parlay pick
Thunder moneyline
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points
Cavaliers TT Over 101.5
The Dallas Mavericks stole Game 2 thanks to a red-hot shooting performance from beyond the arc. They went a sizzling 18-for-37 from deep but entered that contest sitting right around the league average in 3-point percentage and the Oklahoma City Thunder are typically much better at defending the perimeter. The Thunder had several other defensive lapses in that contest and I expect them to be more focused on that end of the floor today.
There isn't much separating OKC and Dallas on offense. The Thunder were third in the NBA in expected field-goal percentage (57.3%) and fifth in turnover rate (12.5%) during the regular season while the Mavs were seventh in eFG% (56.2%) and fourth in TO rate (12.4%). However, there's a significant gap on the other end of the court where the Thunder were fourth in the league in defensive rating and the Mavs were just 20th. Defense tends to come out on top in playoff basketball and that defensive edge is enough for the Thunder to bounce back with a win as slim road dogs.
A big reason the Mavs were able to pull off the upset was a lackluster performance from Chet Holmgren. The rookie center had 11 points on 4-for-12 shooting (1 of 6 from deep) in 37 minutes. That said, Holmgren had 19 points on 8-for-16 shooting in Game 1 and dropped 13 points in just 12 minutes against Dallas in the regular-season finale.
Holmgren has been a crucial part of Oklahoma City's rise this season and he tends to be far more productive when the Thunder win. During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 14.5 ppg on 44.7% shooting in OKC defeats but upped those numbers to 17.4 ppg on 56.9 FG% in victories. Since I'm backing the Thunder to pull off the win tonight, it makes sense to add the Over on Holmgren's points total to this parlay.
The Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Boston Celtics 118-94 as 13-point underdogs in Game 2 in Boston. They shot a sizzling 55% from the floor in that contest and while I expect some regression in that area, their team total still looks too low. While the Cavs were just 20th in the league in scoring during the regular season with 112.6 ppg, that number was skewed due to their best scorer Donovan Mitchell missing 27 contests with various injuries. In 55 games with Mitchell in the lineup, they averaged 114.7 ppg.
They also shot the ball significantly better at home with their effective field goal percentage bumping up from 54.5% to 56.9%. Likewise, the Celtics defense wasn't quite as good on the road where they surrendered 110.5 ppg. With the Celtics also missing their best rim protector in Kristaps Porzingis, they won't be able to hold Cleveland below 102 points.
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Today's NBA same-game parlay picks
Our betting experts have searched through today's NBA odds to find your best SGP bets for both games on Saturday's playoff slate:
Thunder vs Mavs same-game parlay (SGP)
Thunder moneyline
P.J. Washington Over 6.5 rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 2.5 turnovers
P.J. Washington had a career performance in Game 2, scoring 29 points and going 7-for-11 from beyond the arc. While I expect major regression when it comes to his shooting, I do expect him to get another heavy workload, which should lead to him going Over his rebounds prop.
Washington pulled down 11 boards in 40 minutes in that game after having six boards in just 26 minutes in the series opener. He averaged 35.3 minutes per game in the first round, so Game 1 of this series was clearly an outlier, and as long as doesn't get into foul trouble, he should snag plenty of boards against an OKC side that doesn't rebound well.
Despite having one of the highest usage rates in the NBA, Gilgeous-Alexander does a great job of taking care of the ball and Dallas doesn't force many turnovers. SGA has posted fewer than 2.5 turnovers in 21 of 31 games since the All-Star break, and he has also gone below this number in five of six contests against the Mavs this season.
Read Rohit Ponnayia's full Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions.
Celtics vs Cavaliers same-game parlay (SGP)
Cavaliers +7.5
Max Strus Over 1.5 threes
Al Horford Under 9.5 points
After averaging just 6.3 points in the first four games of the opening round, Strus came alive and averaged 13 ppg in the final three games of the series.
In Games 5 and 7 in particular, he chipped in a total of seven 3-pointers. Meanwhile, if Allen does indeed manage to play, Al Horford will have his hands full matching up against both Allen and the defensive prowess of Evan Mobley.
Read Shawn Wronka's full Celtics vs. Cavaliers predictions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
