It’s a show-me Saturday with a 4-game NBA playoff slate and a great night for some free NBA picks.
Multiple scenarios are in play, including the Magic trying to draw even vs. Cleveland and Boston recovering home court from the never-dead Heat.
New Orleans essentially has its season on the line, at home down 2-0 to OKC, while the Lakers are trying not to get swept again by Denver.
Through all that, I’ve plucked the best NBA parlay pick from the bunch: one featuring role players, the other all about stars.
NBA playoffs parlay picks April 27
- Strus Over 1.5 threes made, Gordon Under 14.5 points, Giddey Under 3 assists (+720 at DraftKings)
- Brunson Over 6.5 assists, Jokic Over 21.5 rebounds + assists, Ingram Over 20.5 points (+466 at DraftKings)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Saturday
NBA parlay pick 1
Max Strus Over 1.5 threes made
Aaron Gordon Under 14.5 points
Josh Giddey Under 3 assists
It’s been tough sledding for Max Strus, who was signed by the Cavaliers in the offseason in the hopes of stretching out the defense with some deadeye shooting.
So far against Orlando, that hasn’t been the case, as he’s shooting 2-for-14 from distance through three playoff games, a paltry 14.3% clip.
The regression to the mean is coming, though, as Strus was consistently good from 3-point range in the regular season, making 35.1% on nearly seven attempts per contest.
Only twice this season did he make one or less moneyball in three or more games — a week into the season (three games), and once to start the new year (four).
Speaking of regression to the mean, the Nuggets caught a standout role-player performance Friday night when Aaron Gordon erupted for 29 points and 15 boards to help down the Lakers and take a 3-0 series lead.
It’s just the second time in 10 games he’s gone for 20+, and his scoring line for Sunday is 14.5, a number he’s crossed just once in his previous five before showing out in Hollywood.
The Thunder have been getting it done against New Orleans thus far, and they haven’t needed much from third-year man Josh Giddey.
His 4.8 assist average during the regular season was his first sub-6 dime season, and the playoffs have dipped further, as he’s put up just three assists in the last two games.
There’s a glut of talent on the Thunder, and there’s no urgency to get Giddey going, at least not yet. Until he breaks through, bank on Giddey playing a lowly complementary role to the stars.
NBA parlay pick 2
Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists
Nikola Jokic Over 21.5 rebounds + assists
Brandon Ingram Over 20.5 points
All this talk of Jalen Brunson not being able to score the ball against Philly was quashed with a 39-point performance in a Game 3 loss to the Sixers.
What hasn’t been talked about enough, though, is his playmaking, as he’s averaging 8.7 assists, including a 13-dime effort last time out.
He’s topped the 6.5-assist line set for Saturday twice in three games, missing the third by a single dish. As the lone offensive hub, Brunson will be dealing again in Game 4.
Dealing is all Nikola Jokic has been doing against the Lakers, his play the embodiment of Tupac’s “How Do U Want It?” come to life as he dismantles the Lake Show.
Jokic is averaging 27.7 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists in the series, and the truth is, he’s not even playing at apex level. His rebound-assist line is set at 21.5, a number he’s blasted in the last two games.
Perhaps a chance to close out the Lakers brings out his best effort, and another crushing of his rebound-assist line.
We close out this star-section with the one player who’s yet to play like a star in the postseason.
Brandon Ingram has picked the wrong time to hit the wall, as the Pelicans desperately need someone to carry the scoring load as Zion Williamson will again be out Saturday as he nurses a hamstring injury.
Ingram took just 10 shots and scored 18 points in Game 2, looking more pedestrian than All-Star, as the Pels were crushed 124-92.
That makes it nine times in his last 11 he’s failed to crack the 20-point plateau. To be fair, those games aren't consecutive, as Ingram has been trying to work his way back from a knee injury sustained at the tail end of the regular season.
The combination of the home crowd rejuvenation, plus DraftKings’ generous 20.5 scoring line in a virtual must-win makes this a worthy leg to a parlay.
Ingram is averaging just 13.5 shots per game in this series — look for him to take at least 20 and cruise past this total.
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