The NBA playoffs are just about halfway over, and we've seen plenty of swings on the road to the 2024 Finals.
NBA odds have shifted violently as teams fumble, then bounce back, and do their best to catch the mostly-season-long favorite Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets.
As always, we'll be sifting through the NBA news and betting notes for this week's playoff action.
Youth, served
Plenty of headlines refer to the Oklahoma City Thunder as the youngest team in the NBA playoffs, and they are correct. However, focusing on the Western Conference’s top seed in that age conversation overlooks the youth taking over that half of the league.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks aren't considered young teams because they have a few veterans (Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley) or feel like they have been around for years (the Luka Doncic-era Mavericks), but look at their contributing players. They may not average 23.8 years of age like the Thunder did to start the season, but they should have their own staying power.
Minnesota has been mostly playing a seven-man rotation in these playoffs, one obviously led by 22-year-old Anthony Edwards. Including the fourth-year superstar, four of those seven rotation pieces are 25 or younger, with a fifth in Karl-Anthony Towns, 28, signed for the next four seasons.
Partly due to injury, Dallas has called upon nine players for significant playoff minutes. Five of them are 25 or younger, including Doncic.
Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway Jr. are both 32, with only one assured year left on each contract, so the Mavericks will have questions coming their way, but they are still younger than they seem on the surface. This being Doncic’s fourth playoff run creates a misleading perception about his age.
In all of reality, both the Timberwolves and the Mavericks should be still short of their peaks — assume the average player reaches his peak at age 27 — joining the Thunder on these ascending trend lines.
If nothing else, let that add some urgency to the Denver Nuggets’ title defense. A team so reliant on its starting five features no one younger than 25 and only one player still short of his presumed peak, Michael Porter Jr.
The reffing is bad, but the reffing is also fine
For the second time this season, a call made by Scott Foster led Gobert to rub his thumbs against his fingers in the universal “money” sign. And for the second time this season, Gobert will pay a hefty fine.
Rudy Gobert was fined $75K for making this “inappropriate and unprofessional gesture” directed towards the officials in Game 4 😳pic.twitter.com/sBbOUKYpaM
— Covers (@Covers) May 14, 2024
No one will argue Foster makes every call correctly. He often seems to insert himself into moments of the game that did not need an official in the spotlight. Regardless, Gobert is wrong in implying any version of malfeasance by Foster and/or the NBA.
In March, Gobert suggested more prevalent sports gambling has influenced officiating. If nothing else, he said it at least feels like it has influenced officiating.
“I’ll take the fine,” Gobert said. “I think it’s hurting our game. I know the betting and all that is becoming bigger and bigger, but it shouldn’t feel that way.”
Gobert’s logic fails every version of common sense, but the easiest piece of it is remembering the adage, “Three people can keep a secret, if two of them are dead.” The conspiracy needed for the NBA to influence games to better sportsbooks’ incomes would include too many people to remain a secret.
More likely, Foster sees more fouls in Gobert’s game than most refs see, or that Gobert feels are real. Shocking, a referee and a player disagree on a call.
The same should be said for Doncic and Nikola Jokic, and just about every fan.
Tonight's NBA best bets
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Who knew OG Anunoby would be so valuable? He has been the key to the New York Knicks' surge this season, and anytime New York is without its biggest trade acquisition, things fall apart.
The Knicks are 26-5 in 31 games with Anunoby, and his absence has absolutely been baked into the spread in tonight’s Game 5.
There should still be value in doubting the Knicks when without the do-everything forward that turned Tom Thibodeau’s defense from good to great, its defensive rating improving by 8.9 points in 23 regular season games Anunoby played.
Best bet: Pacers moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Edwards put together arguably the best game of his career on Sunday night. The fourth-year guard made scoring 44 points on 25 shots seem borderline effortless.
Minnesota needs help from everyone else on the roster, specifically offensively from Towns and Naz Reid, but Edwards will come out aggressively tonight in Denver. Failing to do so in Game 3 doomed the Timberwolves from the start, so Edwards scored 11 points in the first six minutes of Game 4, keeping Minnesota engaged until too many mistakes proved too costly.
Anthony Edwards talks about the break between games and momentum: "We won two games, they won two games, at this point it's just whoever wins two games ... I'm happy, we're competing at the highest levels ... if we played tomorrow I'd be ready" pic.twitter.com/d0MC8zEETs
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) May 13, 2024
He may push for 50 tonight, given that frustration. Furthermore, Edwards posted a +5 plus/minus in 45 minutes on Sunday, a game the Timberwolves lost by eight.
Best bet: Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
NBA Trends: I was wrong
Sometimes you should acknowledge when you were wildly off-base with a thought, as in once thinking this second round would be quick and painless. We now have three series guaranteed to go at least six games.
I'm not convinced we don't have four sweeps coming in this round.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) May 8, 2024
Raising the ceiling: Aaron Gordon’s reminder
The Timberwolves actively choose not to defend Aaron Gordon, allowing Gobert to roam in a catch-all defensive role, one that has often worked against the Nuggets in the last few years. Gordon has responded in this series by scoring 40 total points in the last two games on 16-of-19 shooting, including 5-of-6 from deep, and dishing out 11 assists across the two games.
It has been a clear reminder that Gordon was once the No. 4 overall pick for a reason. He has averaged more than 15 points per game in four of his 10 seasons, including the two years preceding this one.
He has never been an elite shooter, but his 29% from deep in 2023-24 may have been more the anomaly. Gordon hit better than a third of his 3-pointers in six of his 11 seasons, including the two years preceding this one.
Gordon’s reminder of what he once was has been the loudest shift in the series, one in which the road team has won every game.
Jaden McDaniels today at shootaround on what the Wolves need to do differently with Aaron Gordon. “Stop disrespecting him.”
— Chris Hine (@ChristopherHine) May 14, 2024
Said he’d be mad too and want to prove something if teams weren’t closing out on him.
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NBA futures update: Speaking of the West …
While the Boston Celtics are the odds-on favorite to win the NBA Finals (-140 at FanDuel), the next four-lowest odds are all four Western Conference teams. There really is little faith in anyone else in the Eastern Conference to make things interesting, which makes some sense given the Cavaliers’ and Knicks’ mounting injuries.
