The Denver Nuggets punched back on Friday. The Minnesota Timberwolves had put the defending champs on their heels in the first two games of this Western Conference semifinal, but the Nuggets made it clear they're not as mentally defeated as Game 2’s blowout suggested.
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic led the way with his usual all-around game, but his points total may be too high in our latest NBA picks. Read more as I dig into my Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction for Game 4 on Sunday, May 12.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Credit the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Team President Tim Connelly — formerly in that same role with the Denver Nuggets — knew the exact player he was trying to counter when he traded for Rudy Gobert and gave Naz Reid a three-year contract. He wanted to find a way to slow down Nikola Jokic.
And Minnesota’s trio of big men, also including Karl-Anthony Towns, have done just that. They are able to play Jokic physically for every one of his 38-plus minutes. Typically, even if he powers through Towns or Reid, Gobert rotates over to contest Jokic’s shot.
The Serbian big man has two options. Chuck from beyond the arc — 3-of-13 in this series, with 2-of-9 coming in Game 1 — or focus on moving the ball. He may be the best passer in the NBA today, and Jokic moving the ball does not bode poorly for Denver. On Friday, nine assists led the game and sparked the Nuggets’ blowout.
Therein lies the other half of this thought. In Denver’s best game of this postseason, Jokic only scored 24 points. Meanwhile, he needed 25 shots to get to 32 points in Game 1, which effectively served as a lesson that his shots are just going to be inefficient in this series. Connelly designed a roster for that purpose, and Jokic shooting 26-of-56 (46.4%) through three games is not an accident.
Jokic has more evidence than ever that he needs to find other ways to beat Minnesota, which he did on Friday. That was helped a bit by the Timberwolves’ terrible shooting, hitting only 44% of their shots from the field, including just 10-of-33 (30.3%) from deep.
That prevented Minnesota from setting its defense on far too many possessions for a team built on its defense. Assume the Timberwolves shoot better in Game 4 and their defense will improve as well, further limiting Jokic’s scoring.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points
Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 threes
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists
Occam’s razor says Minnesota will play better than Friday. If so, then Denver needs to keep shooting from beyond the arc. It creates a bit more space for Jokic to operate, no matter if he is scoring or passing.
Aaron Gordon may be the worst shooter of the Nuggets starters, hitting just 29% of his threes during the regular season, but his spacing also creates the most flexibility for Jokic. The Timberwolves largely ignore Gordon beyond the arc, allowing Gobert to roam as a defensive catch-all.
Gordon probably won't hit 3-of-4 from deep like he did Friday, but he may attempt as many. At that point, betting on him to make at least one of them holds value.
Similarly, spacing leads to assists from Towns. He has recorded at least three assists in four of seven postseason games, and I expect the Wolves' superstar to find his teammates open looks on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves odds
Nuggets vs Timberwolves live odds
Get the latest Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Denver +2.5 (-105) | Minnesota -2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Denver +123 | Minnesota -136
- Over/Under: Over 204.5 (-106) | Under 204.5 (-106)
Nuggets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- After the Friday walloping, Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point favorite for Game 4, a number that moved to -3 by Saturday morning.
- The total opened at 204.5, another reflection that it is hard to fathom the Timberwolves shooting that badly in consecutive games.
- Minnesota is 10-0 outright this season following a double-digit loss and 7-3 against the spread in those moments, including 5-3 ATS against playoff teams.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves trend
The Timberwolves have covered the first-quarter spread in only 32 of their last 82 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Nuggets vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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