The 2024-25 NBA season will one day be remembered as the year Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blossomed into a true superstar.
The Oklahoma City Thunder sensation somehow found a new gear in the new year, as evidenced by a quartet of 50-point performances against the Jazz, Warriors, Suns, and Rockets. His highlight-worthy play catapulted OKC to the top of the Western Conference standings, and earned his team the No. 1 seed in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
Let's take a peek at the 2025 NBA Most Valuable Player odds ahead of this year's award announcement.
🏀2025 NBA MVP odds
👑2025 NBA MVP favorites
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-2500)
Just how low can he go? Shai Gilgeous Alexander's NBA MVP odds dropped from +400 on Opening Night to -2500 today as he kept the Oklahoma City Thunder comfortably atop the Western Conference standings all season long.
SGA's offense gets most of the attention - and deservedly so - but it's his defense that has progressed the most during his epic seventh season. The three-time All-Star averaged 1.7 steals and a career-high 1.0 blocks per game and has made a habit of shutting down opposing guards on a nightly basis. His ball hawking helped the Thunder achieve the best defensive rating in the NBA and has the team's faithful daydreaming about a championship run.
The 2024-25 NBA Scoring Champion... Shai Gilgeous-Alexander!
— NBA (@NBA) April 14, 2025
⛈️ 1st Canadian born player to win scoring title
⛈️ Most PPG in Thunder history
⛈️ 5th scoring champ this century to shoot 50+% from the field pic.twitter.com/KdKU3BlI5z
Gilgeous-Alexander was also the preseason target at BetMGM for many MVP bettors, leading both ticket count (14.5%) and handle (24.1%). He presently has the highest handle percentage (29.3%) at the sportsbook.
| PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.7 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 51.9 |
Nikola Jokic (+1100)
Nikola Jokic is an elite offense unto himself. He scores about as efficiently as anyone in NBA history, and does so entirely within the flow of an attack he also coordinates, with passing few have ever had the vision for.
The seven-time All-Star posted a higher scoring average and dished more dimes than in any of his three previous three MVP campaigns and become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double over the course of an entire season.
Jokic was characteristically humble when asked about his MVP odds earlier in March. "I will say I think I’m playing the best basketball of my life so if that’s enough it’s enough," he said. "If not, [Gilgeous-Alexander] deserves it. He’s really amazing."
Jokic presently has the highest ticket percentage (26.9%) and second highest handle percentage (26.8%) at BetMGM.
| PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.6 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 57.6 |
Shai Gilgeous Alexander vs Nikola Jokic head-to-head stats in 2024-25
| Player | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
30.3 | 5.0 | 6.5 |
| Nikola Jokic |
24.5 | 15.8 | 11.5 |
The Thunder and Nuggets split their four-game set this year, but Joker was far more impactful in their head-to-head clashes, averaging a massive triple-double.
Jokic was especially dominant in Denver's 140-127 win over OKC on March 10, erupting for 35 points, 18 rebounds, eight assists, one steal, and one block.
🤖 NBA MVP AI prediction
It should come as no surprise that ChatGPT is a big fan of SGA. Here's what the chatbot had to say about the NBA MVP favorite:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2025 NBA Most Valuable Player award, thanks to a season that blended elite scoring, leadership, and defensive grit. The Oklahoma City Thunder guard led the league with 32.7 points per game while also contributing 1.7 steals and a career-high 1.0 blocks per contest. Perhaps most importantly, he guided the Thunder to a franchise-best 68 wins—the top record in the NBA—highlighting his impact not just as a stat-sheet filler but as the engine of team success. With four 50-point games and a consistent presence on both ends of the court, Gilgeous-Alexander made an undeniable case for MVP, blending efficiency, explosiveness, and leadership in a way that few players have this season.
Oddsmakers have taken notice, listing him as the heavy favorite to win MVP, with betting odds as steep as -4000 at some sportsbooks. While perennial contenders like Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo had impressive seasons in their own right, neither matched the combination of individual dominance and team success that Gilgeous-Alexander delivered. His ability to elevate the Thunder into legitimate championship contention—while remaining a consistent two-way force—has made him the deserving pick. Barring a major surprise in voting, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to take home the first MVP award of his career.
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📈NBA MVP odds over time
This year's MVP chase is sure to be a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.
💰2025 NBA MVP opening odds
- Luka Doncic +350
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +400
- Nikola Jokic +475
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +850
- Jayson Tatum +1000
- Anthony Edwards +1200
- Jalen Brunson +1400
- Victor Wembanyama +2000
- Ja Morant +3500
- Joel Embiid +5000
Popular NBA futures odds
- NBA championship odds
- NBA Rookie of the Year odds
- NBA Most Improved Player odds
- NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds
- NBA Coach of the Year odds
- NBA Clutch Player of the Year odds
How is the NBA MVP decided?
The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?
🗳️ MVP Voting Process
The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:
- 1st place vote: 10 points
- 2nd place: 7 points
- 3rd place: 5 points
- 4th place: 3 points
- 5th place: 1 point
The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.
📊 What Do Voters Consider?
While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:
- Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
- Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
- Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
- Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter
👀 Voter Biases and Trends
Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:
- “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
- New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
- Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years
📜NBA MVP betting history
A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.
| Season | Player | Opening Odds | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | +450 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | +600 |  Philadelphia 76ers |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | +1600 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | +2500 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +210 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +475 | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | +1100 |  Houston Rockets |
| 2016-17 | Russell Westbrook | +200 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2015-16 | Stephen Curry | +650 |  Golden State Warriors |
| 2014-15 | Stephen Curry | +1600 | Golden State Warriors |
NBA MVP odds FAQ
The NBA intentionally leaves "valuable" open to the interpretation of voters, who typically look for a dominant player on an elite team.
NBA voters submit MVP ballots shortly after the regular season concludes, and playoff games are not considered.
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets won the 2024 NBA MVP.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the all-time record with six NBA MVPs.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has the second shortest MVP odds at +425.
The NBA MVP award is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada. This panel consists of approximately 100 members who cover the NBA regularly throughout the season. They vote for the player they believe has been the most valuable to their team based on their performance throughout the regular season.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the record for winning the most NBA MVP awards in league history. He won the MVP award six times during his legendary career with the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.
