Mavericks vs Pistons Picks and Predictions: Doncic Simmers Down in Detroit

In a bit of an NBA scheduling oddity, tonight’s game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Detroit Pistons is the only one on the board for Thursday, December 1. With Cade Cunningham potentially lost for the season and Jaden Ivey questionable, it will be a motley crew of Pistons trying to cobble together a gameplan to slow down the seemingly unstoppable Luka Doncic.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Pistons is taking the unusual step of shorting Doncic, but it’s not due to any misplaced faith in the quality of this Detroit team.

Mavericks vs Pistons best odds

Mavericks vs Pistons picks and predictions

Luka Doncic has reached a level of undeniability that, at just 23 years old, has him on truly hallowed ground. His combination of usage, production, and overall winning basketball at this age puts him in a conversation with a very exclusive club. One particularly startling milestone? During his last game, he matched Dirk Nowitzki for second-most 40-point games in Dallas Mavericks history with 20. Dirk played 20 seasons. Luka is just starting his fifth.

He’s also the rare breed of player who elevates his game in the playoffs, and who lives to test himself against the best. Unlike say, James Harden, with whom he often draws comparisons due to their shared ball-dominating ways, Doncic has already proven himself a certified playoff killer. So why short him on Thursday?

Yes, the Pistons have some defensive talent. Killian Hayes, who has been starting in Cade Cunningham’s extended absence, is a solid defensive guard. Isaiah Stewart is built like a tank and moves his feet well for a pseudo-stretch big. Bojan Bogdanovic isn’t as spry as he used to be, but he’s strong and smart, which are the two traits you want most to cover Doncic.

But this bet is really not about that. Luka routinely turns defenders of much a greater caliber into walking highlight reels. No, this is actually a vote against the Pistons’ overall quality. They’re just off making the New York Knicks look like the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, allowing them to hang 140 points on them in regulation. That Knicks team is hovering around seventh in offensive rating per Cleaning the Glass, in no small part because they’ve played the Pistons three times already this season.

If he really puts his mind to it, I’ve no doubt that Luka could have 60-20-15 against this team. But I just don’t think this game will be competitive into the fourth quarter, and Luka should see a long stretch on the bench to close it out. That, more than anything, is why this is my favorite bet on the board today.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Under 49.5 points, rebounds, and assists

Mavericks vs Pistons spread analysis

The Mavs are getting between -6.5 and -7-points for Thursday, which is on the lighter side given the overall disparity between these two teams. Dallas is coming off perhaps its best win of the season, taking down the Warriors, while the Pistons are still reeling from the aforementioned demolition by the Knicks. 

Cunningham is mulling whether to have season-ending surgery to address a lingering shin issue, and without him, the Pistons’ offense is relying heavily on the likes of Kevin Knox and Alec Burks. They’ve performed admirably given the circumstances, but Dallas should have a matchup advantage at multiple positions on every possession.

And Luka doesn’t typically play with his food. The Mavericks are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. When he smells blood, he goes for the kill early, as he did in last year’s Game 7 obliteration of the Phoenix Suns.

If there’s any reason to be skeptical of Dallas on Thursday, it’s been its recent struggles on the road. The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five away from the American Airlines Center. That said, they’ve dominated in Detroit in the Luka era, going 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at Little Caesars.

Mavericks vs Pistons Over/Under analysis

Against all odds, the Pistons have cobbled together a semi-respectable offense recently, but upon closer inspection, that’s been the product of some unsustainable shooting. They’re still generating some of the worst shots in the league by location-effective field goal percentage per Cleaning the Glass, and it will take a truly lifeless effort from the Mavericks to allow the Pistons to hang around deep into this one. 

The Mavs are solid but unspectacular on both ends this season, ranking 11th in both offensive and defensive efficiency overall. Could the Mavericks still score enough to hit Over at 221.5? They shoot the third-most threes in the NBA, accounting for 43% of all their shot attempts. That gives their offense a huge amount of variance, but doesn’t make me feel great about this total one way or the other. They’re also the slowest team in the NBA in terms of overall pace.

I’m skeptical that the Pistons will be able to keep up with Dallas overall, but less certain if that will be because the Mavericks shut them down defensively or rout them offensively. That makes this a stay-away bet.

Mavericks vs Pistons betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Pistons.

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