If the Boston Celtics face the Atlanta Hawks on a Thursday night in March as 16-point favorites and no one watches, did the game actually happen? Of course, people will watch tonight. Because, of course, people will have bets on this expected blowout.
Worrying about an NBA odds spread that jumped more than four points since opening becomes a bet on a busy Hawks injury report. But recognizing that creates value elsewhere, in one player who has played well in the last month and should carry a burden tonight.
We’ll turn to De’Andre Hunter in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Celtics vs. Hawks on Thursday, March 28, with tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Celtics vs Hawks predictions
My best bet: De’Andre Hunter Over 1.5 made threes (-170 at bet365)
The splits are obvious. Before Trae Young’s hand injury, De’Andre Hunter was playing 28.3 minutes per game, taking 4.8 threes per game, and hitting 41.4% of them. Since Young’s hand injury sidelined him on Feb. 25, Hunter has averaged 29.2 minutes, taking 5.7 threes per game and hitting 37.4% of them.
That all makes sense. Of course, there were more shots from range to be had when one of the most prolific shooters in the NBA went to the bench. And it is not too shocking that Hunter is taking an additional tough 3-pointer per game, rather than an open look, without Young spacing the floor.
But one split stands out a bit more. It is not surprising, but it is notable.
Hunter’s usage rate was 19.8% before Young’s injury and 22.8% since. Hold on, that undersells it, because it took Hunter a week or so to lean into his bigger role. Since March 1, his usage rate has been 23.7%. He has been taking 6.3 threes per game in those 13 games. And in eight of them, he made at least a pair.
In eight games with a usage rate of at least 23% since March 1, Hunter has averaged 6.4 threes per game and shot 43.1% from deep, making at least a pair of 3-pointers in seven of those eight games.
The Hawks’ injury report is too long to delve into here, which should assure Hunter of a larger workload tonight. When he has that responsibility, he makes the most of it.
There is worrying juice on this prop, but an argument can be made it is nowhere near high enough. Realizing Hunter’s lowest usage rate since March 15 was last night’s 22.5%, percentage points from the wanted threshold in this conversation, this prop should start being juiced past -200.
Celtics vs Hawks same-game parlay
De’Andre Hunter Over 1.5 made threes
De’Andre Hunter Over 17.5 points
Dejounte Murray Over 8.5 assists
How many ways can you repackage the same bet into one same-game parlay? Because all three legs of this are effectively the same bet.
In those eight games this month when Hunter had a usage rate of at least 23%, making at least two 3-pointers in seven of them, he scored at least 18 points in five of them, one of the exceptions falling short by the hook. That 19.4 points per game average came in no small part thanks to Dejounte Murray.
In six of those eight games, Murray handed out at least nine assists, averaging 9.6 assists in that stretch. In the last five games of Hunter enjoying such a high usage rate, Murray has cleared this prop in each and averaged 11.2 assists per game.
This same-game parlay would have cashed in four of the Hawks’ last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Celtics vs Hawks odds and trends
Celtics vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Boston -12.5 | Atlanta +12.5
- Moneyline: Boston -714 | Atlanta +480
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Celtics vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened at a more reasonable -12.5 on Wednesday evening before climbing as high as -17.5 in the dark of night. It fell back to -16 mid-morning, but there is some reason to think the Hawks will be more shorthanded than realized, while the Celtics will be as close to full strength as one might hope.
- Boston has not played since outright losing to Atlanta on Monday despite being 10.5-point favorites. The jump in tonight’s line can be partly ascribed to the Hawks’ playing last night. But otherwise, it could be argued this has climbed too high as long as both Hunter and Murray play for Atlanta.
- The total opened at 226.5 and bounced as low as 224.5 before returning to 226. It warrants notice that four straight Celtics’ games have gone Over their totals, as have five straight Hawks’ games.
Celtics vs Hawks betting trend to know
Boston is 13-4 against the spread since the All-Star break. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Hawks.
Celtics vs Hawks game info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports SE-ATL, NBC Sports Boston |
Not intended for use in MA.
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