The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins are set to begin a three-game series on Tuesday night.
Each of these teams enters tonight following a day off and a win. It was a victory for the Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays, effectively winning the three-game series for them. A 5-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday gave the Twins a series win.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks and Yankees vs. Twins predictions on Tuesday, May 14.
Yankees vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A New York Yankees win tonight is my best bet, and there's an edge from a simple handicap perspective and a value perspective.
For starters, I projected the Yankees to be just over -140 favorites in this matchup, giving bettors a massive edge against the current number of -122. So, given the value that presents, I have to take this bet. However, another reason to like this pick is that they come with a significant edge on the mound.
Carlos Rodon takes the hill for the Yankees tonight and has had a decent start to his season. He lowered his ERA from nearly a career-high last year and has done it by inducing more of a softly-hit ball. There are still issues, but he's been better, and the matchup against the Minnesota Twins is decent.
Minnesota could be better against lefties this season. They are 20th in runs per game against them and 18th in isolated power. Because of that, Rodon should be in a solid position to manage this game.
Making up the most significant part of my handicap is New York's matchup against Minnesota righty Chris Paddack. Paddack's hard-hit and barrel rates are on pace for some of the worst numbers of his career, with each metric set in the Bottom 25% of baseball. That's a recipe for disaster vs. this Yankees team.
New York is one of two teams in the league in the Top 5 in terms of both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. That makes them a nightmare matchup for Paddack, and I expect them to demonstrate that tonight.
Yankees vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
We're pairing the Yankees to win the game with Juan Soto to go over his bases prop as a continuation of one theme: attacking the hard-hit issues of Paddack.
Nobody is hitting the ball harder than Soto on the Yankees roster. These days, only a few players are. He'll enter this game with a hard-hit rate in the 99th percentile of baseball. I'd expect that power to be on full display tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Twins odds
Yankees vs Twins live odds
Yankees vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Minnesota +1.5
- Moneyline: New York -125 | Minnesota +116
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a competitive series recently. Over the last 10 games, the teams have split at a perfect 5-5 clip head-to-head.
- Backing the Yankees blindly continues to yield a profit (+2.01 units). The Twins have been even more profitable this year (+3.3 units).
- There's no strong trend edge when backing totals for these teams, and that's highlighted by what we've seen in the two sides' last 10 games. Each has been an even 5-5 to the Over in that stretch.
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Yankees vs Twins trend
The Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Twins.
Yankees vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, BSNO |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (2-2 3.68 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Chris Paddack (3-1, 4.78 ERA) |
Yankees vs Twins latest injuries
Yankees vs Twins weather
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