Coming off a 3-2 loss in Game 1 of a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians, the Minnesota Twins are looking to bounce back at Progressive Field.
Despite the loss, the MLB odds have Minnesota entering Game 2 as a -115 moneyline favorite on the road against Cleveland’s worst starting pitcher.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Twins vs. Guardians predictions on Saturday, May 18.
Twins vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It’s been an uneven start to the season for Cleveland Guardians pitcher Logan Allen, who is set to start Game 2 against the Minnesota Twins. While the lefty is coming off arguably his best start of the season, it was against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Just one start prior, he got housed by the Detroit Tigers to the tune of seven earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings worth of work. The 25-year-old heads into his start against the Twins with the worst ERA among Cleveland’s starting pitchers (5.56) and the sixth-most home runs allowed in the MLB (nine).
It’s going to be tough for Allen to get it together against the Twins with his 1.500 WHIP and 10.5 H/9. It’ll be especially hard against Minnesota shortstop Carlos Correa, who may not be in All-Star form anymore but is still one of the Twins’ most dangerous bats.
He’s historically been better against lefties with a career slash line of .285/.379/.473 vs. southpaws (.268/.341/.464 vs. righties), and he matches up well against Allen’s top pitch.
Allen has gone to his four-seamer 48.1% of the time this season with less-than-stellar results. Opponents are batting .373 with a .663 SLG against it, and it’s resulted in a run value of -8 for Cleveland.
That’s music to Correa’s ears with it being among the pitches he’s seeing best so far this season. Correa is hitting .350 with a .600 SLG off four-seamers. More than half of his extra base hits have come off fastballs overall.
While Correa hasn’t been playing up to his standards this season, he’s still shown he can be an All-Star level bat against specific pitches. Between Allen being a lefty and leaning so heavily on his four-seamer, Correa is in perfect position for a get-right game against a struggling pitcher.
Twins vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 total bases
Josh Naylor Over 0.5 hits
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 hits
On the flip side of this matchup, both Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez are poised to get theirs against Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober. Ober’s off to a solid start to the season, but both Naylor and Ramirez hit his top pitches well.
Ober is using his four-seamer 37.8% of the time, and Naylor’s hitting .275 with a .775 SLG against it this season. Meanwhile, Ramirez has a .522 SLG against four-seamers and is crushing Ober’s second go-to pitch, the changeup. The Guardians slugger is hitting .387 with a .677 SLG against changeups this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Twins vs Guardians live odds
Twins vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 | Cleveland +1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -107 | Cleveland -101
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Twins vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a -113 to -120 road favorite after losing Game 1 of the series, and the line has seen minimal movement with most books sitting at -115.
- While the Guardians are the underdog, they lead the AL Central with a 28-17 record. The Twins sit third in the division at 24-20.
- The Over/Under for Game 2 opened at 7.5 and remains there. Some books are offering the Under at plus-money.
- Neither team has been a great Over bet this season with Cleveland at 22-21-2 and Minnesota at 20-23-1.
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Twins vs Guardians trend
The Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians
Twins vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, BSGL |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.77 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Logan Allen (4-2, 5.56 ERA) |
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Twins vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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