The Cleveland Guardians will look to build on their two-game winning streak as they host the Detroit Tigers in the opener of a three-game series tonight.
My Guardians vs. Tigers predictions weigh the MLB odds, which list Cleveland as the favorite as Detroit is coming off a sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees.
The Guardians will hand the ball tonight to Triston McKenzie, who has a history of success against Detroit. We’ll break down what that means for bettors in our free MLB picks for May 6.
Tigers vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-118 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
After a couple of rough starts at the beginning of the season, Triston McKenzie seems to have settled in for the Cleveland Guardians. The 26-year-old righty has had three straight solid outings, putting up a 2.81 ERA and striking out 19 batters over 16 innings in that span. As a result, the Guardians have won all three of those games.
That’s what Cleveland was expecting out of McKenzie coming off his very successful 2022 campaign when he posted a 2.96 ERA over 191 1/2 innings. He missed most of the 2023 season due to two separate injuries — a shoulder strain and a UCL strain — and struggled in limited appearances at the end of the year. But if McKenzie has his stuff back, he’s a valuable addition to a Guardians staff looking to power a playoff run.
The Detroit Tigers aren’t lighting up the world on offense, either. Detroit averages just 3.91 runs per game, ranking 21st in the majors. Over the weekend, the Yankees held the Tigers to a total of just six runs over three games, and Detroit has managed to score more than four runs just once in its last seven.
The Tigers will counter with Jack Flaherty, who was struggling to find his groove before a dominant outing against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 30. Still, Flaherty only owns a 4.00 ERA this year and is coming off a year where he went just 8-9 with a 4.99 ERA between the Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles.
Flaherty is most effective when he can mow batters down, as he did in striking out 14 against the Cardinals. But the Guardians are one of the toughest teams to strike out in the majors and are averaging nearly five runs per game. This should ultimately be a rough outing for Flaherty, as this is not the kind of lineup he matches up well against.
Not only is Cleveland the superior team, but it has a clear advantage in tonight's pitching matchup. The Guardians should be able to walk away with a home win and start padding their lead in the AL Central.
Tigers vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians moneyline
Over 7.5
Triston McKenzie 6+ strikeouts
I’m taking a long shot on my same-game parlay tonight, but all three legs seem very reasonable. I like the Guardians on the moneyline, and they should score enough to carry the 7.5 total. Finally, I like McKenzie to pick up at least six strikeouts against a high-strikeout Tigers lineup, and it's something he’s done in each of his last three starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tigers vs Guardians odds
Tigers vs Guardians live odds
Tigers vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-180) | Cleveland -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Detroit +100 | Cleveland -120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Tigers vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- The consensus moneyline is now Guardians -120, with Detroit offered at around +100.
- Cleveland is up 10 units on the moneyline this season, while Detroit is up about a unit for bettors on the year.
- The Over/Under opened at 7.5 runs and remains at that total. The Under is considered the favorite, with +105 available on the Over at some sites.
- The Over holds an 18-14 advantage when Cleveland plays, while the Under has the 16-15 edge in Tigers games.
Tigers vs Guardians trend
Cleveland is 4-1 in McKenzie’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians
Tigers vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (0-1, 4.00 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Triston McKenzie (2-2, 4.34 ERA) |
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Tigers vs Guardians weather
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