The Cincinnati Reds finally got off the schneid with a much-needed win over the San Francisco Giants on Friday and will now look to lock up their first series win in two weeks when they send lefty Nick Lodolo to the hill tonight.
Find out why we're expecting a pitcher's duel in our Reds vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 11.
Reds vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It seems Nick Lodolo is finally delivering on his sky-high potential in his third big-league season. The Cincinnati Reds lefty has struck out opposing hitters at a blistering 32.2% clip while keeping his expected batting average at just .219.
A 45.5% ground-ball rate has been what’s worked for Lodolo, and tonight the southpaw will toe the rubber at a park where fly balls go to die. The San Francisco Giants are also missing key power-hitter Jorge Soler and sport a team OPS of just. 675 through 40 games.
Meanwhile, Giants right-hander Mason Black posted a special 1.01 ERA down in AAA this season, forcing San Francisco to give him a chance following the injury to Blake Snell. Returning home where he should have a much easier time pitching to contact, I like Black to shut down a Reds offense that has been struggling lately.
Reds vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Mason Black Over 4.5 strikeouts
TJ Friedl 2+ total bases
The Reds are striking out at one of the five highest clips in baseball this year. In a pitcher-friendly park, Black should stick around longer against Cincy's weak offense.
I’ll also take TJ Friedl — who will get plenty of at-bats at the top of the order — to go for two or more total bases. He boasts positive run value versus the slider and owned a .280 BABIP against righties last year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.Reds vs Giants odds
Reds vs Giants live odds
Reds vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati -1.5 (+150) | San Francisco +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -115 | San Francisco -105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Reds vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
-
70% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the Reds ML at DraftKings.
- The Giants opened as a slight underdog of around +109 before the money began to pile in on Cincinnati and push this up as high as +127.
- The total has moved from 7.5 to 8.0, with 58% of bets and 70% of the handle on the Over.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Reds vs Giants trend
The Giants have hit the F5 team total Under in 75 of their last 121 games (+24.47 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs Giants.
Reds vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Nick Lodolo (3-1, 2.79 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Mason Black (0-1, 10.39 ERA) |
Reds vs Giants latest injuries
Reds vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
