The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals begin a three-game series at Busch Stadium on Friday night. The Red Sox are .500 thanks largely to their pitching staff and my Red Sox vs. Cardinals predictions for today are banking on another strong performance from their hurlers.
See what I'm betting on in my MLB picks below.
Red Sox vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Cardinals team total Under 3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
One of the biggest surprises of the MLB season has been the play of the Boston Red Sox pitching staff. The Red Sox have an MLB-best 2.79 ERA, with that number slimming to an incredible 2.21 on the road.
Today they're starting Brayan Bello who has a 3.13 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP through six starts. He's gone below his earned runs allowed mark in five of his six outings and while he doesn't have overpowering stuff, he limits hard contact and sits in the Top 20th percentile in ground ball rate.
They've also been getting some great work out of their bullpen, which is fourth in the majors in ERA (3.07) and sixth in WHIP (1.17).
That's bad news for a St. Louis Cardinals squad that is second last in the majors in runs per game (3.60), with that number dipping to 3.35 at home.
They're also just 28th in the majors in OPS (.652) while ranking 25th in barrel rate and 26th in hard-hit rate. Don't overthink this one and take the Under on their team total.
Red Sox vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Cardinals team total Under 3.5
Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 total bases
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
A big reason why the Cardinals have been struggling at the dish is that All-Star sluggers Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are both slumping. Arenado is slugging just .368 and his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate are all in the Bottom 15th percentile.
The Cardinals are starting Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.67 ERA through eight starts but his expected ERA is significantly worse at 5.42. Devers is a two-time Silver Slugger who is red-hot, slashing .351/.432/.597 over his last 20 games. He's also gone 8-for-18 at the plate against Gibson in his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Cardinals odds
Red Sox vs Cardinals live odds
Red Sox vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+145) | St. Louis +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Boston -115 | St. Louis -105
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Red Sox vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 games and have gone 6-11 at home this season.
- The Red Sox are 3-6 in their last nine and they'll be at a rest disadvantage since they played last night while the Cards enjoyed a day off.
- The Red Sox are 5-1 in Bello's starts this season but Bello has gone Under his outs recorded prop in five of those games.
- Boston has struggled at the dish this month, averaging 3.21 runs/game with an OPS of .654.
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Red Sox vs Cardinals trend
The Cardinals have been kept Under their team total in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.15 units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Cardinals.
Red Sox vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Sports Midwest |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (4-1, 3.13 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.67 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Cardinals latest injuries
Red Sox vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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