The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox face off in MLB action on May 14 after Tampa beat the BoSox 5-3 in the series opener last night.
My Rays vs. Red Sox prediction expects Boston to bounce back and tie the series at a game apiece tonight in front of their home crowd. Find out why in my MLB picks ahead.
Rays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tampa Bay Rays are starting Aaron Civale, who's struggled ever since they traded for him last July. He pitched to a 5.36 ERA in 10 starts during 2023 and has a 5.88 ERA through eight outings this season. He's been even worse lately, posting a nasty 9.82 ERA with a .333 OBA in his last four starts, despite a pair of those coming against the White Sox's horrendous offense.
The Boston Red Sox are responding with Nick Pivetta, who has a 4.00 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 157 2/3 innings since the start of last season. Pivetta is coming off a rough outing against the Braves, but that was fresh off a stint on the IL, and he allowed just one run and eight hits through 11 innings in his first two starts of the year.
He should be better now that he's had some innings to work off the rust, and he's thrown well against the Rays recently, limiting them to six runs through 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts. Boston's bullpen has also been better, with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, while Tampa Bay's relievers have a 4.71 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
The BoSox have also been superior at the dish, ranking 11th in the majors with a .713 OPS, while the Rays are six spots behind at .687. The analytics back up those numbers, with Boston also 15th in hard-hit rate and 13th in barrel rate, while Tampa Bay is just 28th and 30th, respectively.
It's tough to see an area where the Rays have the edge in this matchup besides their recent head-to-head history. Take the Sox at close to a pick'em price at home here.
Rays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox ML
Jarren Duran Under 1.5 total bases
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Jarren Duran has gone an impressive 4-for-5 from the dish in his career against Civale, but that's a small sample size, and his total bases are juiced way too high today.
The Over 1.5 TB for Duran is set at -145, which is bonkers when you consider that elite sluggers are typically in the -110 range against average pitching. Duran is far from elite, slashing just .222/.298/.389 over the last month while going below 1.5 total bases in 18 of 27 games.
While Duran's o1.5 total bases line is too high, Rafael Devers is priced at -110, which is good value for the two-time Silver Slugger winner. Devers started the season off in a slump but he has picked things up and is slugging .563 over the last 17 games. The left-handed batter also rakes when he has the platoon advantage, slugging .547 in his career against southpaws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox live odds
Rays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-200) | Boston -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +100 | Boston -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Rays vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The ML has slimmed from -120 to -115 while the Over has ticked up from 8.5 to 9, with the Under now juiced to -115.
- After beating the BoSox 5-3 last night, the Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- The Red Sox started the season off strong but are 3-7 in their last 10 and have averaged just 2.6 runs per game during that span.
- The Rays are 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these AL East foes.
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Rays vs Red Sox trend
The Rays have only hit the first five innings moneyline in 35 of their last 91 games (-23.20 Units / -17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs Red Sox.
Rays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, NESN |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (2-2, 6.14 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (1-2, 3.60 ERA) |
Rays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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