The Tampa Bay Rays head to Fenway Park for the first game in a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox.
My Rays vs. Red Sox predictions key in on Kutter Crawford continuing his hot streak with Boston listed as a -120 moneyline favorite in the MLB odds.
Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks on Monday, May 13.
Rays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Kutter Crawford Over 17.5 outs (-115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It’s been a breakout season for Kutter Crawford, who is pitching at an All-Star level after two up-and-down years with the Boston Red Sox in 2022 and 2023. The 28-year-old has the lowest ERA among Boston’s starting pitchers (1.75), giving up just nine earned runs across 46 1/3 innings.
With the fifth-lowest ERA in MLB, Crawford is poised to pitch another stellar game against an inconsistent Tampa Bay Rays batting lineup. The Rays have several players batting below .250, including All-Star slugger Randy Arozarena (.158).
Given Arozarena’s slump, it’s no surprise Tampa ranks just 23rd in home runs and 20th in slugging. The lack of power in the Rays lineup should help Crawford last long enough to get through at least six innings. In his eight starts, Crawford is averaging 17.3 outs but has completed at least six innings in four straight. Over those four games, he’s been uneven at times, but Boston has kept him on the mound, trusting him to get out of a pinch.
The righty has three pitches he uses more than 10% of the time with his cutter (32%), four-seamer (30.4%), and sweeper (23.7%). Opponents have had issues against all three this year, but his cutter and four-seamer have been particularly difficult to square up.
Opposing batters are hitting just .196 against his cutter with a .233 XBA and .275 SLG. His four-seamer has been even better with opponents hitting .188 with a .191 XBA and .208 SLG — 17 of his 46 punchouts have come with his four-seamer.
And his sweeper hasn’t been too shabby, either, with batters hitting .229 with a .208 XBA and .354 SLG off it. Even if he has to go deeper into his arsenal, opponents are hitting .250 or worse against both his splitter and knuckle curve.
Rays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Kutter Crawford Over 17.5 outs
Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 hits
Connor Wong Over 0.5 hits
The biggest threat to Crawford will likely be Isaac Paredes. The Rays third baseman is having a career year with a team-best 42 hits and a .300 batting average. He’s also found success against Crawford’s go-to pitches with a batting average over .330 against both the cutter and four-seamer.
On the Red Sox side, catcher Connor Wong has been the hottest bat on the team to start the season. He leads the team in batting average (.348) and should do well against Tampa Bay starter Zach Eflin. Wong’s batting .400 against Eflin’s top two pitches this season (sinker, cutter).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox live odds
Rays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-205) | Boston -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +100 | Boston -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Rays vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened as a -120 to -138 moneyline favorite with most books still hovering around -120.
- Boston sits third in the AL East at 21-19 with Tampa Bay just slightly behind at 20-21.
- Most books still listing the total at the opening 8.5 line have the Over at even or plus-money.
- The Rays have been one of the best Over teams in MLB at 23-17-1, but Boston has been one of the worst at 14-23-3.
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Rays vs Red Sox trend
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 31 away games (+13.85 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox
Rays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, NESN |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (2-4, 3.75 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (2-1, 1.75 ERA) |
Rays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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