The third installment of this four-game AL East series gets underway on Sunday with the fifth-place Boston Red Sox hosting the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.
These two clubs split Saturday’s doubleheader, with Boston winning the first game and Tampa Bay securing the second.
Will the Red Sox defend their home diamond, or can the Rays take care of business as road favorites? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on Sunday, June 4.
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox predictions
Slated to take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays is right-hander Taj Bradley, who is off to a strong start in his MLB career. Through six starts this season, Bradley is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
More impressive than those surface-level stats are his underlying metrics. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 77th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%.
On top of that, Bradley has been a strikeout machine, ranking in the 94th percentile in K% while recording seven or more strikeouts in each of his past two starts. However, now could be a great time to sell high on his strikeout prop, especially considering he's coming off an 8-punchout performance against a Cubs team that strikes out against everyone.
Bradley’s other underlying metrics, in regards to strikeout predictability, do not come close to stacking up to his unsustainable 94th percentile ranking in K%. Most notably, he ranks in the 55th percentile or lower in whiff rate, chase rate, fastball velocity, and curve spin.
This expected regression in the strikeout department is likely to come against the Boston Red Sox. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Boston ranks fifth in the league in K%.
It's important to remember that Bradley racked up eight strikeouts in his debut against the Red Sox back in April, but he also produced a 24% whiff rate in that game, which is quite low relative to a 37.5% strikeout-rate performance.
Looking at Boston’s projected starting lineup for Sunday, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this season.
My best bet: Taj Bradley Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rays vs Red Sox moneyline analysis
I would lean toward Boston’s moneyline in this contest but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. My main concern in backing the Red Sox is right-hander Tanner Houck, who is projected to take the mound in this matchup.
Through 10 starts this season, Houck is 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, the good news for the former first-round draft pick is that his underlying metrics are stronger than those surface-level stats suggest.
Currently, he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. With that said, he still is outpaced by Bradley pretty much across the board, which is part of the reason why Tampa Bay is favored in this game.
Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Under in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. Both pitchers rank in the top half of the league in pretty much every key metric across the board, but both lineups are even stronger.
Currently, the Rays rank second or higher in runs scored per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and home runs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox also rank in the Top 5 of the league in each of those stats outside of homers.
These are two powerhouse offenses that possess stacked lineups, but Bradley and Houck are both capable of holding their own.
Rays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, NESN |
Starting pitchers
Taj Bradley (3-2, 3.60 ERA): It's been a strong start to Bradley’s MLB career, evidenced more so by his terrific underlying metrics rather than his average surface-level stats. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 77th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Boasting a four-pitch arsenal, Bradley is a fastball-heavy pitcher with a solid curveball and strong changeup.
Tanner Houck (3-4, 5.30 ERA): Houck is also a stronger pitcher than his surface-level stats indicate. Currently, he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Possessing a five-pitch arsenal, Houck does a terrific job mixing his pitches and keeping opposing hitters on their toes.
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Trend to know
Boston is 5-1 in its last six games against the AL East. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox
