Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Hicks Hassles Rockies at Coors Field

Prop bet #1: Worry about Weathers

Sometimes you look at a bet and you think, “there is an undeniable conclusion here.” That’s what I’m thinking as Miami Marlins starter Ryan Weathers prepares to take the mound against the Los Angeles Dodgers this afternoon.

The Dodgers and their juggernaut offense are really starting to ramp up. Led by the white-hot Shohei Ohtani, they’ve won six games in a row, scoring a ridiculous seven runs per game during that period. Overall, they rank fifth in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

So, basically, all you can say is "poor Ryan Weathers."

The Marlins southpaw hasn’t been very effective to this point. Weathers is pitching to a 5.06 expected ERA, is surrendering a .256 expected batting average to opposing teams, and is striking out just 19% of the batters he has faced. Those numbers rank in the 20th, 35th, and 27th percentile, respectively.

Like I said, poor Ryan Weathers. His hits allowed prop is sitting at 5.5 with the Over priced at +135. The last time he faced a lineup comparable to this was against the Braves on April 22, when he gave up six. I expect a similar result today.

Ryan Weathers prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Go, go, Gunnar

The Baltimore Orioles are a wagon. The Orioles are now back in first place in the American League East with a 23-12 record and are supported by a seemingly endless supply of high-level prospects. 

One of those former prospects is shortstop Gunnar Henderson. The 22-year-old is off to a great start in his second full big-league season. Henderson is hitting .266 with a .889 OPS, including an AL-leading 10 home runs. That means he’s been producing runs at a high rate. His 24 RBIs rank eighth in the AL.

However, he’s entered a bit of a cold snap, hitting just .136 and not driving in a run in his last six games. But that, and a lefty-lefty matchup against Washington Nationals starter Mitchell Parker, is giving us some value in Henderson’s RBI market.

Generally, you think the platoon splits can hurt hitters, particularly lefties. But that’s not the case for Henderson. The O’s star shortstop is proving why he’s going to be an everyday player for a long time, hitting .291 with a .921 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, and Parker is an inexperienced one.

The 24-year-old Parker is making just his fifth career start, and while he has a solid 2.53 ERA, he ranks in just 57th percentile when it comes to opponent expected batting average. Parker is more of a control pitcher rather than a high-strikeout guy. That could hurt him against Henderson and an Orioles lineup that loves to be on the attack.

Covers Prop Projections have Henderson at 0.6 RBIs, so this price is giving us some value. I like the O’s star shortstop to get back on track in this matchup.

Gunnar Henderson prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+172 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Hicks fixes Rockies' wagon

I was skeptical at first, but the Jordan Hicks as a starter thing is working out for the San Francisco Giants.

Hicks made his name as one of the hardest-throwing relievers in baseball the last several years but decided to make the transition to a starter when he signed with the Giants this offseason, and the early returns have been impressive. The 27-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 3.12 expected ERA and is limiting opponents to a .217 expected batting average.

Now, his strikeout rate has taken a bit of a hit as a starter, striking out 19.7% of batters faced compared to 23.9% for his career. However, if you look at Hicks’ game logs, you’ll see he’s been king of all or nothing. He has four or more starts with five or more strikeouts and three or fewer in the other way. Well, in tonight’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies, I think it’s going to be the former. 

Run production has been an issue for the 8-27 Rockies. Colorado ranks 23th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and dead last in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. Not surprisingly, strikeouts have been a big part of the problem. The Rockies have the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties this season at 28.3%.

Our Covers Prop Projections have Hicks at 5.1 Ks, so with his strikeout number sitting at 4.5, I like him to cash the Over tonight. 

Jordan Hicks prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-104 at FanDuel)