Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Castillo Gets Blasted by Rangers

Prop bet #1: Dakota Hudson Under 16.5 outs

It’s no secret the Colorado Rockies are, um, a little deficient when it comes to starting pitchers. Their rotation has the second-worst xFIP and is dead last in ERA; there aren’t really exceptions, including today’s starter, Dakota Hudson.

Hudson is pitching to a 4.89 expected ERA while surrendering a .273 expected batting average to opponents. Both numbers rank in the 25th percentile or worse. On top of that, he ranks in the fourth percentile in strikeout rate and has a high walk rate.

Today, he’ll stare across at a San Diego Padres lineup led by Fernando Tatis Jr. that has gotten off to a solid start this season, particularly against right-handed pitchers. The Padres rank fourth in batting average, sixth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ when facing righties.

So, obviously, that’s a tough matchup for Hudson, made worse by the fact he's pitching at the hitter-happy Coors Field. 

All that has me looking at Dakota Hudson’s odds for his outs recorded prop. He’s stayed below today's mark of 16.5 in two of his four starts this season, including his latest which lasted just four innings after he allowed four runs on seven hits and five walks against the Mariners.

It looks like it could be a short day at the office for Hudson, and Covers Prop proections has Hudson at 14.9 outs. That’s more than an out and a half of value. Under all day.

Dakota Hudson prop: Under 16.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Luis Castillo Under 17.5 outs

Luis Castillo has pitched better than his ERA suggests, but something seems just a little off with the Seattle Mariners ace so far this season.

Specifically, Castillo is giving up a ton of hits — giving up six or more hits in his first four starts — and his .237 opponent expected batting average ranks in the 57th percentile. 

His four-seamer and slider have been fine, but his sinker and changeup have been absolutely crushed. Teams have smashed those pitches for .797 and .519 expected slugging, respectively, resulting in him using his fastball even more. Nearly 50% of the time, in fact, allowing opponents to key in on it.

Now, he is coming off his best start of the season, but that was against the Colorado Rockies. The Texas Rangers will present a little tougher front.

The Rangers are doing what the Rangers do... mash the ball. Texas ranks sixth in batting average and fifth in OPS and wRC+ when digging against right-handed pitchers this season. Plus, the Rangers have given Castillo plenty of problems in the past.

Castillo made three starts against the Rangers in 2023, with a great start on June 2 sandwiched between two poor ones.

Luis Castillo’s odds for his outs recorded prop is on the board at 17.5 with the Under at plus money. He’s stayed below this number in three of five starts this season, and our Covers Props projections have him at 16.8.

Luis Castillo prop: Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBI

Juan Soto has been everything the New York Yankees could have hoped for and more. The slugger has made the Yankees lineup dynamic and dangerous, and I like him to have a big impact at the plate tonight when he digs in against the Oakland A’s.

Soto has been a beast to start the season. The left-handed slugger enters this game hitting .319 with a.995 OPS. That includes six home runs and 22 runs batted in, which ranks fifth in the big leagues.

Today, he’ll face off against the A’s Alex Wood. The veteran left hander hasn’t been great this season, pitching to a 6.45 expected ERA and is surrendering a .297 expected batting average to opponents.

Yet, we're still getting a really good price On Juan Soto's odds when it comes to driving in a run tonight. That is likely just because of the lefty-lefty matchup, but don’t fret about that, Soto splits against lefties are silly. A .323 average and a .954 OPS, while at the same time, lefties are crushing wood for a .379 average and a 1.057 OPS.

Soto drove in two RBIs yesterday, and I like him to drive in another tonight at enticing plus money. 

Juan Soto prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+210 at bet365)