With more than a month and a half of the 2024 MLB season in the books, we now have a pretty good idea of which breakout players are for real and which ones were just red-hot in a small sample size. I'm digging into the MLB player props for three guys having breakout seasons and I expect their success to continue today.
See why you should keep betting on Kutter Crawford, Seth Lugo, and Ryan Jeffers with my MLB picks for Saturday, May 18.
MLB props for May 18
- Crawford Under 2.5 earned runs (-130 at bet365)
- Lugo Under 2.5 earned runs (+100 at bet365)
- Jeffers Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-18 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Kutter makes the cut
Boston Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford is coming off his worst performance of the season after surrendering four runs in six innings against the Rays.
That said, he's still putting together a fantastic season, pitching to a 2.24 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP through nine starts. Crawford is in the Top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and the Top 20th percentile in average exit velocity, and he should be poised for a bounce-back performance against a weak St. Louis Cardinals lineup.
The Cards managed to plate 10 runs last night but they are still just 26th in the majors in scoring with 3.75 runs per game while posting an OPS of .665. They are also just 26th in hard-hit rate and barrel rate while ranking 24th in average exit velocity, so their recent uptick in scoring doesn't look sustainable.
Kutter Crawford prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-130 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Lugo limits the damage
After coming out of the bullpen for most of his career, Seth Lugo cracked San Diego's rotation last year and put together a solid season, pitching to a 3.57 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in 26 starts.
The Kansas City Royals signed him in the offseason and he's been even better this year, posting a sizzling 1.66 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP through nine starts. Lugo's statcast analytics suggest that regression is on the horizon for the veteran right-hander, but I don't expect that to hit today in a favorable matchup against a struggling Oakland A's lineup.
The A's are 28th in the majors with 3.68 runs per game, with that number dipping to just 2.88 runs per game on the road. They've been even worse lately, plating just 1.2 runs per game over their last five contests. With Lugo allowing fewer than 2.5 earned runs in eight of nine starts this year, back the Under at even money.
Seth Lugo prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (+100 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Jump on Jeffers
Minnesota Twins catcher and DH Ryan Jeffers has emerged as one of the top power hitters in the AL. He leads the club in both homers (10) and doubles (12) and his .595 slugging percentage is fourth in the majors. Jeffers has gone 0-for-7 from the dish in the last two games but I'm betting on him to snap out of his mini-slump today against the Cleveland Guardians, who have Logan Allen on the mound.
Allen has a 5.56 ERA with an OBA of .293 through nine starts, and he ranks in the Bottom 25th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Allen relies primarily on a four-seamer while mixing in a cutter, sweeper, and changeup. Jeffers has been mashing against all those offerings, and he is slugging .650 against four-seamers.
Ryan Jeffers prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
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