It’s the start of the week, and back to the grind. With that comes a loaded slate of MLB baseball to power through our Monday. We’ve sifted through the entire MLB odds board for the best value in the MLB player prop market and are ready to dish them out. From strikeouts to total bases, we have you covered.
Here are my free MLB picks for player props on Monday, April 22.
MLB props for April 22
- Suarez Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings)
- Ross Over 1.5 walks (-200 at bet365)
- De La Cruz Over 1.5 bases (+145 at bet365)
Picks made on 4/22 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Prop bet #1: Park Ranger
Ranger Suarez has been terrific to start the season with underlying metrics that suggest he can continue things. He’ll enter today with one of the best-expected ERAs in baseball, along with many other impressive metrics. Most important to us? A strikeout rate is around 28%.
We projected this number at 6.72, so we happily took the edge. Amid its winning streak, the Cincinnati Reds have still been striking out at a relatively high clip. They’ll enter this game with just over 8.5 strikeouts per game in their last three games and over 9.5 on the season. That second metric is the 6th highest amount in baseball, and staying at that form will result in this cashing. Suarez is currently poised to have the best season of his career, and by all accounts, he should get plenty of chase from the Cincy hitter today.
Ranger Suarez prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Lack of command
Joe Ross will enter this game with one of the highest walk rates in baseball amongst starting pitchers over three starts. Ross has gone Over this number in two of his three starts. He opened the season with Minnesota and served up five that day.
He went Over that number again two starts later against the San Diego Padres. Now, he’ll face an opponent in the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have walked at the second-highest clip in baseball.
It goes within keeping that he should eclipse this number for a third time in four starts. The Pirates have displayed some of the best plate vision in the sport over the last month, and this is an excellent spot to put that on display.
Joe Ross prop: Over 1.5 walks (-200 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Cruising the basepads
Like most expected coming into this season, Atlanta Braves right-handed Bryce Elder has started to regress.
The number of ground balls Elder was getting per game was unsustainable, and we’ve started to see that. Elder will enter this game with a bivy of rough metrics, most notably a hard-hit rate that ranks in the bottom 30% of the league. I’m backing Bryan De La Cruz as another hit to take advantage of this.
This is a simple calculus. Nobody hits into fewer groundballs than De La Cruz on the Miami Marlins roster, and this season, he’s had the third-highest hard-hit rate in Miami’s lineup. That seems like a solid formula for him to be effective in this spot.
Bryan De La Cruz prop: Over 1.5 bases (+145 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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